Caleb Durbin is off to a rough start in his first few games with the Red Sox. Acquired via trade this offseason, he’s gone 4-for-32 with 6 Ks and 2 BBs. While this is a small sample, what’s more concerning than the results are are potential issues with his mechanics and his approach.
What Durbin Did Well in 2025 Compared to Now
Contact Ability
With the Brewers, Durbin did a great job of maximizing contact to limit strikeouts. His zone contact rate was well above Major League average and his 10% strikeout rate was 5th best in baseball among qualified hitters.
So far this season, Durbin’s whiff is up 9% compared to 2025. This is particularly bad against breaking and off-speed pitches. He is also swinging at fewer pitches overall in zone and is chasing more.
Efficient Use of Power
He also did a good job of pulling the ball in the air. While Durbin has below average raw power, this approach allowed him to max out the power he does have for success.
This season he is no longer lifting. His ground ball rate is up significantly and his flyball and line drive rates are down.
| Season | GB% | FB% | LD% |
| 2025 | 44% | 23% | 22% |
| 2026 | 62% | 15% | 15% |
| Difference | +18% | -8% | -7% |
Data from Baseball Savant.
He is also pulling these ground balls 10% more than last season.
Potential Mechanical Issues
In general, Durbin’s swing has a lot of moving pieces. Pre-pitch he shifts his weight, and during load he has a leg lift, which makes it difficult for him to keep his head level. These types of mechanics can complicate timing and eye level, which can lead to inconsistencies in results from year to year, and throughout a season. Here is an example of a swing from this year:
I think that all of these moving pieces in his swing may be contributing to his results this season so far because his stance and mechanics seem slightly off compared to 2025. It is unclear whether this is intentional.
Starting with pre-pitch, Durbin is starting in a more open stance. He also lowered his elbow and hands slightly:
That being said, the biggest issue I am seeing in the swing is that Durbin is struggling to keep his head level. His head is moving quite a bit pre-pitch by shifting his weight, which can make it harder to track the ball cleanly.
When a hitter’s head is moving like that, his eyes are moving with it, which can lead to challenges with pitch recognition. This lines up with what we are seeing from Durbin so far in terms of more swing and miss, especially against non-fastballs. It can also impact timing, which would fit with the increase in pulled ground balls.
Load looks relatively the same as 2025, but he appears to be in a tighter position. There is less space overall.
At foot down, Durbin is landing in slightly a more open position:
This slightly more open landing position might also be contributing to the increase in pulled balls on the ground. When we combine that with his struggles to keep his head level, it makes it even harder for him to stay through the ball.
Approach Issues
There is also a shift in his approach that is concerning. This might be in part in his head. Pre-season, Durbin was being hyped up as someone who could use his strong pull ability to have success against Fenway’s Green Monster. While he is certainly capable of achieving success this way, it’s been leading to poor swing decisions. He is trying to pull everything, regardless of count or pitch.
Here’s two examples. In this clip, the count is 3-1 and Durbin is trying to pull a changeup in the outer half of the plate.
In this clip, he’s trying to do the same against a first pitch slider to the outer half:
Both of these swings better resemble that of a hitter who is trying to protect in a 2K count.
This is a big issue because it leads to a very simple plan of attack from opposing pitchers: throw everything to the outer half. Looking at his contact heat map from this season, it is almost exclusively pitches on the inner half:
An adjustment here might look like Durbin cooling it a bit in terms of focusing on what actually makes sense for where he is in the count. Are there opportunities where he can slap the ball opposite field instead? While I’m sure he is excited to be pulling the ball over the monster, his success starts with his ability to just put the ball in play competitively.
What’s Next
In terms of moving forward, Durbin doesn’t need to make any drastic changes, he just needs to get back to what made him an effective hitter. That starts with maintaining balance throughout this swing and landing straight, both of which would help turn some of those ground balls back into line drives and fly balls.
He can also be more aggressive in-zone, especially against fastballs, and find his approach again.
If he can make these adjustments, there is still a path for him to contribute to the Red Sox offense. If the contact continues to decline, this will be a difficult profile to maintain over the course of the season.