Looking at Tolle’s pitch mix, tunneling, and sequencing from 2025 to 2026, there are major changes that have contributed to his success this season. His 2.97 ERA and 28% K rate are a huge step up from his 6.06 ERA last season. Let’s dig into how he looks so different and what’s behind his success this season.
Lowered Arm Slot
Tolle lowered his slot by about 6 degrees this season.
This has allowed him to add some armside run to his fourseamer and gloveside cut to his cutter.
Addition of the Sinker
One major change is the addition of a sinker. In 2025 he relied primarily on a fourseam and also threw a cutter, but this season he is incorporating a sinker 22% of the time. He uses all three of his fastballs against both hands.
| Pitch Type | 2025 | 2026 | Difference |
| Fourseamer (96mph) | 64% | 47% | -17% |
| Sinker (95mph) | 0% | 22% | +22% |
| Cutter (88mph) | 14% | 19% | +5% |
| Curveball (83mph) | 6% | 9% | +3% |
| Changeup (89mph) | 7% | 3% | -4% |
| Slider (89mph) | 10% | 0% | -10% |
Tolle is tunneling his three fastballs extremely well, making it difficult for hitters to differentiate between them before they need to commit to a swing.
Let’s explore how his mix and attack against both hands has changed:
Attack Against Right-Handed Hitters
Against righties, Tolle has a power heavy mix with the three fastballs accounting for 86% of his pitches:
| Pitch Type vs RHH | 2025 | 2026 | Difference |
| Fourseamer | 64% | 51% | -13% |
| Sinker | 0% | 18% | +18% |
| Cutter | 16% | 17% | +1% |
| Curveball | 7% | 9% | +2% |
| Changeup | 8% | 5% | -3% |
| Slider | 5% | 0% | -5% |
In terms of location, against righties he throws the fourseam primarily upper half, sinker in the upper half but further toward the outer half, and the cutter along the inner edge.
Graphics from Baseball Savant
Looking at sequencing, Tolle is using those three fastballs to move hitters around the plate while maintaining the same initial look. Since the pitches tunnel so effectively, he can change the location and movement without giving the hitter an obvious indication of which fastball is coming.
Here are a few examples from his recent start against the Dodgers (8/1) and the Athletics (8/7):
These examples show how Tolle isn’t just randomly mixing pitches. He is using them to attack different parts of the zone. He can move from one edge of the plate to the other, or stay in the same area while changing the pitch shape and velocity.
The Andy Pages example demonstrates this because Tolle throws a changeup in a location where Pages could also be expecting the fourseam or sinker. He doesn’t use this changeup much, so this adds even more uncertainty during an at-bat.
The Teoscar Hernández example shows how deceptive just the three fastballs alone can be. He moves from one side of the plate to the other while changing pitch shape and velocity. Becaused they come from a tight tunnel, this makes the sequences especially challenging.
The Jacob Wilson example shows another common sequence for Tolle: starting up and away and then moving progessivley further in. The curveball isn’t used as often either, but it gives him another way to control an at-bat. Wilson struck out on that pitch.
These sequences are a big change from his 2025 attack, where it wouldn’t be surprising to see the fourseamer 3-5 times throughout one plate appearance. His 2026 sequencing and mix allow him more ways to move around the zone.
Against Left-Handed Hitters
Against lefties, Tolle eliminated the slider in favor of his sinker.
| Pitch Type vs LHH | 2025 | 2026 | Difference |
| Fourseamer | 63% | 35% | -28% |
| Sinker | 0% | 32% | +32% |
| Cutter | 3% | 24% | +21% |
| Curveball | 3% | 9% | +6% |
| Changeup | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Slider | 30% | 0% | -30% |
The sinker changed the way he attacks lefties. In 2025, he relied on the fourseam and slider, with very little cutter usage. Now, he has three fastballs that allow him to attack both the inner and outer halves of the plate.
Graphics from Baseball Savant
Looking at sequencing, we can see how much more often Tolle can use the inner half of the plate.
The Ohtani, Muncy, and Freeman examples show how well Tolle moves to different edges of the zone. He can go around counterclockwise like he did with Ohtani, inà outà up like he did Muncy, or out and in like he did Freeman.
But he doesn’t always need to do that for success. In the Rushing example, he was able to live on the outer edge with one pitch before ultimately getting a flyout with the cutter.
These sequences differ from 2025. The sinker hasn’t just been a new pitch to throw. It allowed him to better use a part of the zone that he only went to occasionally with his fourseam.
Results and Thoughts
In terms of overall results against both hands, Tolle has gotten more chase, in zone miss, and weaker contact across his entire pitch mix. Some of his pitch movement changed due to his lower arm slot, but these changes alone don’t fully explain his improvement.
The addition of the sinker and changes to his mix have given Tolle more ways to attack the zone. His three fastballs tunnel well, which allow him to move hitters around the plate and remain deceptive.
Overall, this is a more complete approach than in 2025 and gives him more options for getting outs.