Right-handed pitcher Chad Patrick made his Major League debut in 2025 and had results in line with that of a mid-rotation starter: 3.53 ERA, 25% K, rate and 8% BB rate in 119.2 innings. He did a great job of getting ahead in the count, staying in zone, and getting whiff.
The interesting part is that he had this success with such a unique approach. He does not rely on any breaking pitch, and rarely throws his changeup. He succeeds by relying primarily on three fastballs, mostly thrown to the upper half of the zone.
Can Chad Patrick continue to have that level of success as a starter with this fastball heavy approach?
What is Patrick’s Approach Now?
Patrick uses his cutter as his primary fastball vs both hands, and then mixes his sinker and his fourseam. He uses his sinker more against righties and his fourseam more against lefties.
| Fastball Usage | Cutter | Sinker | Fourseam |
| Vs RHH | 43% | 28% | 16% |
| Vs LHH | 39% | 17% | 30% |
Data from Baseball Savant
He also mixes in a changeup 12% of the time vs lefties. He has a slider and also developed a “slurve” in 2025, but very rarely threw either (combined 7% of the time).
Here’s a quick look at the three fastballs:
- Cutter: 88mph. Above average cut and depth. His best pitch and 12th in MLB run value in 2025.
- Fourseam: 94mph. Above average ride and below average run. Gets above average chase and in-zone miss.
- Sinker: 94mph. Below average sink and run.
Patrick is not overpowering hitters with velocity, he is challenging them with three unique shapes.
The narrow 6mph velocity gap forces Patrick to rely on movement rather than messing with a hitter’s timing, especially because he uses all three pitches exclusively in the upper half of the zone.
He is not afraid to go after hitters to try to get ahead, and has a first pitch strike rate that is 5% better than MLB average. He gets outs via strikeouts and flyballs.
So far, Patrick is getting away with this fastball heavy approach because of how well his cutter is performing in terms of missing bats. While it is a good pitch and Partrick had mid-rotation level results in 2025, there are some underlying reasons why I think his role is limited to a back of the rotation starter over a full season.
What are the potential issues?
There are a few limiting factors that back up why Patrick’s role is currently limited to that of a back of the rotation starter:
- First Pitch Damage
- Not Utilizing the Lower Half
- Fly Ball Risk
- Park Factor
First Pitch Damage
While Patrick generally gets above average in-zone miss, when hitters do make contact it is quality, especially first pitch against the cutter. Looking at the table below, we can see how high the xSLG against the cutters were in 2025.
Patrick has an aggressive approach to start an at-bat with a high first pitch strike rate, but if hitters start hunting these pitches they can capitalize.
Not Utilizing the Lower Half
Looking at Patrick’s heat maps vs both hands, he focuses primarily on the upper half of the zone:
Graphics from Baseball Savant
Top of the rotation and middle of the rotation starters are able to change eye level and control more than just the upper half of the zone. They can expand and force hitters to defend the upper and lower halves. This upper half only approach limits Patrick’s ceiling.
Fly Ball Risk
As fly ball pitcher, its important to ensure opposing hitters are not barreling a pitch. Patrick had a hard time limiting pulled balls in the air in 2025, and finished in the bottom of the League in terms of pull air rate.
Patrick’s 10% pop-up rate helped limit damage, but I am doubtful about whether he can maintain such a high pop-up rate. The starters who see success with pop-up rates this high typically also feature a plus pitch. For example, Joe Ryan has a 11% pop-up rate but also features an elite fastball. While Patrick’s cutter is good, it does not have the same overpowering profile.
If even a few of these pop-ups turn into fly balls, his results will shift.
Park Factor
Looking at Patrick’s home vs away splits, there is a clear discrepancy in how he performed:
As a fly ball pitcher who allows hard contact, he is more sensitive to his environment. American Family Field is close to neutral in terms of park factor, but a hitter friendly park will not be as forgiving.
Can Patrick continue to have success with such a fastball heavy approach?
Yes Patrick can continue to have success with a fastball heavy approach, but he has little room for error. His 2025 results relied on above average in-zone miss and chase, a high pop-up rate, and better results at home. Sustaining all of these factors over a full season is difficult.
To raise his ceiling, he could:
- Start incorporating a breaking pitch to the lower half of the zone. Develop the slurve or the slider into a trusted lower third pitch that can be thrown in zone (not just for chase).
- Start mixing his pitches more first pitch to create some unpredictability and prevent hitters from sitting on the cutter.
The cutter is a strong foundation pitch for Patrick. Whether he can be a reliable mid-rotation starter will depend on whether he can expand the zone, mix his early count approach, and add a pitch that forces hitters to defend the lower half of the zone.