In this article, we will take a look at the Yankees roster heading into the offseason and opening day 2022. To do this, we will summarize strengths and weaknesses from this year, and then break down the roster by position to identify areas that can be upgraded.
When talking about roster spots and players, the following legend will be used:
Key Takeaways from the 2021 Season:
- Offense did not perform to expectation & was very inconsistent throughout year:
- 13th in team OPS /12th in team wOBA
- But 1st in walk rate
- Starting pitching was close to average, could have been better:
- 10th in ERA
- 9th in FIP
- Relief pitching was very good:
- 4th in ERA
- 5th in FIP
- Defense was not great:
- Team DRS -41
- Every position significantly below average except RF
- Trouble on basepaths. Not aggressive/good at getting extra bases
- The team is on the slower side. This was partially due to injuries of faster players like Tim Locastro, and players still developing like Estevan Florial, Jonathan Davis, etc.
Starting Rotation:
Notable Free Agent: Corey Kluber
The starting rotation has four spots that are pretty much set. The 5th spot can be improved, though they do have some players that can compete for this spot. These players include:
- Domingo Germán
- Nestor Cortes Jr
- Luis Gil (though I like him as a reliever long term)
Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt are also in the picture, but based on their performances and Schmidt’s injury this year, I think they will be provided more development time to start next season.
Another option is to sign a veteran arm to add to the rotation.
Bullpen:
Notable Free Agent: Darren O’Day (Option) & Joely Rodriguez (Option)
The top two spots are pretty much locked for next year. Because they enter free agency at the end of the 2022 season, I have them set for one year on the roster. The next three pitchers have all performed very well this year, so I have them as set for two years based on their performance.
Joely RodrÃguez has a club option of $3 million. He was included in the Joey Gallo trade, and joined the Yankees mid-season. He is a ground ball pitcher with a plus sinker, and he did better with the Yankees than with Texas in fewer games. I believe he has a spot in the bullpen next season.
Darren O’Day also has an option. After his surgery and not being able to play this year I don’t see why he wouldn’t exercise his 1.4 million option. This option is not that much money, so if he declines the option the Yankees will probably buy him out for $700,000.
Other bullpen choices for the year that can compete for the final spot include Michael King (3 remaining minor league options), Albert Abreu (1 remaining minor league option), Wandy Peralta (1 remaining minor league option). I put Wandy Peralta in the spot for now since he is a left handed pitcher, but this 8th spot can potentially be upgraded. The Yankees have pretty good depth in the bullpen in case of injury. Also, the bullpen overall was one of the stronger parts of the team this season so they should be in good shape for next year.
Infield Positions:
Notable Free Agents: Anthony Rizzo (1B)
The guys in yellow here (Sánchez and Odor) are set as 1 year based primarily on their contract status, since they will be free agents for the 2023 season.
Higashioka is entering arbitration 1 this offseason, so he will be under team control for a while, but I don’t see him as a long term future Yankees’ catcher. As a result, I only have him set for 2 years. Urshela is set for 2 years based primarily on his contract. LeMahieu is set for 3 years not just based on his extension, but also because I still like him as a plus defender and quality hitter despite having a bit of a down year per his standards.
Positions that can be upgraded are first base, shortstop, and a bench spot. I am not saying these players do not have a spot on this team or in the organization necessarily, just that the position itself can be improved. Anthony Rizzo was an improvement at first base, and he is a potential free agent signing. He earned $16.5 million this season, so we know he will want more than that and a long term deal from his next team. Quickly looking at the Yankees payroll, they are already at approximately $233 million based on guaranteed salary and estimated arbitration salaries from Spotrac. Later on this offseason, we can walkthrough estimating arbitration salaries but I don’t think its necessary for this exercise. The luxury tax threshold this season was $210 million, so they are sure to exceed it next season, especially if they sign a free agent.
Shortstop as a position should have someone who is a plus defender. If he is not a plus defender, he should be contributing regularly offensively and that is not the case right now. That position is the Yankees biggest hole to fill before Opening Day.
Andrew Velazquez has spent some time playing shortstop this season, but I do not see him as an everyday shortstop for the Yankees, especially not long term. Oswald Peraza is a top prospect in the Yankees organization, but he needs some more time to develop. Even when he arrives there is no guarantee of his performance. Having never seen him play, I have little to base my analysis of him on except scouting reports, so I still believe shortstop is a position that needs to be addressed in the short term future.
Outfield Positions:
Notable Free Agents: Brett Gardner (Option)
The outfield is pretty set for next season except for Gardner. He has a player option for $2.3 million. I don’t see why he wouldn’t exercise that option. If he for some reason declines I don’t think the Yankees would use the club option, they’d probably buy him out.
Stanton is set for long term not just based on his contract, but also because he isn’t going anywhere. It would be very difficult to move him, as the Yankees would need to take on a lot of his salary. Luckily, he did well this season.
In terms of players who were injured this year the Yankees also have Locastro, Andújar, and Frazier coming back next season. There are also several minor league players we may see, like Estevan Florial.
One interesting thing to consider is whether Judge is offered an extension, since he is a free agent at the end of next season. While this seems like a no brainer, the Yankees will need to prioritize which players they want to continue building around. Surpassing the luxury tax one year may be no big deal, but multiple years in a row causes some more serious consequences. I would be shocked if Judge is not a centerpiece of the Yankees for years to come, but an extension and any other signing this offseason impacts the payroll limitations for years to come, and eventually they will have to cut cost.
Some things to consider for next year:
The team in my opinion is pretty set for next year. The question becomes are they good enough to compete against the Red Sox and Rays?
This is completely dependent on their offensive performance. And because their defense and baserunning is below average, it is critical to the success of the team that there are offensive contributions regularly from the entire line-up.
What do you think the key spots for improvement are for the Yankees this offseason?