Why do the Rays Use a Four Man Outfield?

You can bet on the Rays to do something weird. And this first series against Toronto, it was the four man outfield.

The Rays are trailblazers in a lot of baseball strategies, primarily the shift and the opener. So as a Rays fan, I’m never surprised when the defense gets in a more extreme shift or when something unconventional happens.

For this particular shift, it just struck me as extra risky to leave the entire left field of the infield open during this new shift.

Let’s look at the shift in question:

As shown in the above image, the left side of the field has 2 players, one in left center and one down the left field line. There is no one covering the left side of the infield. Before going any further, I just want to clarify that this more extreme shift was only used against Cavan Biggio, and more specifically, when he had 2 strikes.

Before the 2 strike count, the Rays had a player (Adames) positioned on the left sign of the infield to protect against a bunt. They still had a four man outfield, just one less player on the right side of the field.

Before two strikes:

Why Use the Four Man Outfield Against Cavan Biggio?

There are two components to this shift that we need to figure out:

• Three infielders on the right side of the field, and none on the left
• Four Man Outfield

Let’s see if we can figure out why the Rays are shifting like they did for each component.

Three Infielders on the Right Side of the Field

To determine why the Rays are positioned where they are, we need to take a look at where Cavan Biggio’s hits tend to land. Looking at the infield slice chart below from Baseball Savant, we see that the vast majority of his infield hits are to the right side of the field.

This graphic, which tracks all balls in play that are within 200 feet of the plate (mostly infield hits), makes it clear that Biggio favors the right side of the field. More than 77% of all his balls in play to the infield go to the right side. So, it makes sense to want an extra defender on that side to cover more ground.

But if only 5% of his infield hits are along the third base line, why do the Rays position someone down the left field line?

Four Man Outfield

Just because a player hits a certain way with singles/infield hits, it does not necessarily mean that he hits that way with all his hits. This rings true with Cavan Biggio.

Looking at the spray chart from Baseball Savant below, we can see where all of Biggio’s balls in play end up. If we look at his infield balls in play, we can confirm what we talked about before, that the majority of his infield balls in play are to the right side of the field.

However, if we look at where the outfield balls in play land, there is a different story. Cavan Biggio hits the ball all over the outfield. When he hits the ball far, he is capable of getting it anywhere.

As a result, the defending team is more equipped to defend the outfield. The additional player helps cover more ground. And when you have as many talented defensive players as the Rays, why not put them in the best position for success?

Results of the Shift

Baseball is so much more than the numbers. Just because the metrics suggest this positioning, it doesn’t mean it is a perfect system.

Friday Night’s Game

Cavan Biggio singled on a soft bunt to the first basemen, Yandy Diaz. This was a tough play, as the ball was tossed to pitcher Charlie Morton, who dropped it and couldn’t get to the bag in time for the out.

In the 5^th, Biggio hit a home run to right field.

The rest of his at-bats resulted in strikeouts.

Saturday’s Game

Biggio singled on a line drive to left-fielder Brandon Lowe. It was a shallow single, which may have been cut off by a typically positioned second basemen.

In the 4^th, Biggio singled to right fielder Manuel Margot. This was a really well placed hit, out of the reach of Wendle.  

Later in the game, he flew out twice to right fielder Manuel Margot. He also walked.

So it didn’t work?

Two games and a handful of balls in play is a small sample size to determine whether this shift against Biggio makes sense. And even though we can’t depend solely on analytics to make big baseball decisions, the career balls in play for Biggio really suggests that the Rays are in their best position to defend against him. As long as they keep someone on the left side before 2 strikes to protect against a bunt, I’m on board.

So if you aren’t a fan of this shift, give it a chance. The Rays are one of the best defensive teams for a reason.