Ever since Chris Archer was traded back to the Rays, I’ve been taking a deep look into his numbers to see what changed during his time with the Pirates. In Part 1, I spoke about how Archer added a sinker to his pitch mix. In this post, I’m going to shift gears and talk about his fourseam fastball, and how it’s evolved over the past few seasons.
There are two main points about Archer’s fastball that I noticed:
- It’s always been hit pretty well
- Since Archer’s time with the Rays, his fourseam velocity is down 2 mph.
Archer’s Fourseam Command
The best results off of Archer’s fourseam came during the 2015, when opponent SLG against was .405. In 2016, the opponent SLG jumped to over .500, and has stayed in that range ever since. What this means is that his fastball has never been a super dominant pitch.
One of the reasons why the opponent SLG is on the higher side may be because of where the fourseam ends up. While Archer’s fourseam does have above average carry, it is landing in the heart of the zone. It’s done this throughout his career, check out the heat maps below (courtesy of Baseball Savant) from 2017 and 2019.
As a result, his fourseam zone-contact percent is pretty high. Looking at the graphic below,from Fangraphs, we can see that his fourseam contact rate is around 90% in zone for 2019.
I just want to point out before continuing that it is not surprising that the contact percent is so high in the middle of the zone. It makes sense for hitters to be able to hit pitches in the heart of the zone with the most ease.
That being said, when looking at pitchers with similar velocity and pitch movement to Archer, we see that they are not throwing their fourseam in the middle of the zone like Archer is. Check out the heat maps of Anthony DeSclafini, Lance Lynn, and Mitch Keller below:
Even though all four pitchers have similar movement and velocity on their fourseam, Archer’s fourseam is landing more frequently in the heart of the zone. The three pitches above are also utilizing other areas, such as high above the zone, or one side of the plate.
Reduced Velocity
From 2017 to 2019, Archer’s fourseam velocity has decreased from an average of 96 mph to 94 mph.
While 2 mph does not seem like a big deal, it might be playing into his recent struggles. The main issue with the reduced velocity is that it brought Archer from 89th percentile velocity to 69th percentile in the league.
The reduced velocity also brings his fastball closer to the velocity of his slider and change-up. Typically, the more variance in velocity between high velocity pitches and offspeed pitches the better, as a greater variance more effectively throws off hitters’ timing.
Comparing his velocity in 2015 to 2019, we see that gap between the fourseam and slider velocities narrowing.
The spin on Archer’s fourseam is average, and always has been. While that is not a huge deal on its own, combine that with the reduction in velocity, and less of a difference between the velocity of his fourseam and offspeed pitches, and you might have a contributing reason to why Archer’s numbers declined in 2019.
Do you think Archer will get better results off his fourseam this season? Let me know in the comments below.
And check out Part 3: Changes to Archer’s Wind up.
Music in the video: Avalon by NiM Available for download on Soundcloud
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