Coming off of a 100 win season, the Tampa Bay Rays are in a position to be successful again in 2022. With some tough competition in the AL East, it is important that every roster spot is held with the best person who can contribute to the success of the club. With that understanding, we can look at the areas of need for the 2022 roster, beginning with starting pitching.
Losing Chris Archer and Michael Wacha to free agency, the Rays’ 2022 rotation currently looks like this:
- Shane McClanahan
- Shane Baz
- Luis Patiño
- Drew Rasmussen
- Ryan Yarbrough
While all five of these pitchers are dependable, there is room in the rotation for pitchers with more upside than the fourth and fifth spots listed above (Rasmussen and Yarbrough). Ideally, these spots would be filled with more veteran free agent pitchers.
Drew Rasmussen had great results this season, with a career best 2.44 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 20 games. While he does have two plus pitches, one concern is that he outperformed this year. His expected ERA was 0.8 runs worse than his actual (which is enough of a difference to be considered a significant difference). Similarly, his expected FIP was 0.6 runs worse than his actual. Additionally, he’s undergone two tommy john surgeries, so he will not be going very deep into games. I believe he is better suited for a bulk innings reliever than a fourth starter long term.
Ryan Yarbrough’s role has been that of a swing man, but the past two years he’s transitioning into more of a starter. While he does a great job of limiting hard contact, he’s velocity is also well below average. This season his ERA was 5.11, compared to his expected ERA of 4.54. While it is certainly a good sign that his expected ERA was better than his actual, if there is a better option available for this role it is worth considering.
Criteria for a Rays’ Suited Free Agent
For the free agent signing to be worth it, the candidate must have better stuff or higher upside than Rasmussen and Yarbrough, while also being affordable enough to fit on the Rays’ payroll. For reference, the Rays’ estimated 2022 payroll is currently at $85 million. Their opening day payroll in 2021 was only ~$60 million.
Starting Pitcher Free Agent Candidate: Tyler Anderson
Tyler Anderson is a left handed pitcher who had pretty average results throughout his career, but for about half of his career, his expected FIP was significantly better than his actual.
This season with the Mariners and Pirates was one of the best of his career, with a 4.53 ERA and 4.37 FIP. He earned only $2.5 million. He did a great job of limiting hard contact and had the lowest walk rate of his career. While his pitches have lower velocity than average, the underlying numbers show that there is potential for him to post better surface results next season.
Anderson throws four pitches: fourseam, cutter, change-up, and sinker. His fourseam has plus movement and is a highly efficient pitch (99% spin efficiency). This means that 99% of the raw spin contributes to the movement. His cutter has plus horizontal movement and exhibits seam shifted wake.
If you are not familiar with SSW: Seam shifted wake (SSW) describes the effect that’s seams have on pitch movement. Based on the way certain pitchers grip their pitches, the seams will cause more or less air to flow off of the ball and causes the spin axis to shift. That ultimately leads to varying movement by the time it crosses the plate because hitters think they know how a certain pitch will move, and then it moves differently, making it much harder to make quality contact.
Anderson also has a non-traditional delivery, which can mess with a hitter’s timing. He briefly pauses at the back of his wind-up before he throws to the plate. Check it out in the video below:
Tyler Anderson is a less expensive starting pitcher free agent candidate with great underlying attributes, a lot of upside, and the ability to go deep into games. While he is similar to Yarbrough in the sense that they are both left handed hitters that generate weak contact, Anderson has an edge because he throws harder and has more plus pitches. I believe he would work well with the rest of the Rays’ pitching staff.
Swing Man Free Agent Candidate: Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen earned $4.4 million with the Reds this season, the worst year of his career. He suffered two injuries: one to his hamstring and one to his shoulder. He finished the year with a career high 5.59 ERA and 43% hard hit rate.
Lorenzen throws six pitches: cutter, fourseam, change-up, slider, sinker, and curveball. While he typically generates a lot of ground balls, his fourseam resulted in more fly balls than in years prior and caused increased damage. Additionally, his change-up was not as effective.
So then why would the Rays be interested in him?
Lorenzen has a lot of upside. All of his pitches have plus velocity, and most have plus movement. His change-up gets above average whiff rates. It has plus armside run that runs into right-handed hitters and away from left-handed hitters. His sinker has seam shifted wake, which helps explain its late horizontal movement.
Looking at his results from 2021 again, his expected ERA (4.06) was significantly better than his actual (5.59). His FIP and xFIP tell a similar story. While the expected ERA is still on the higher side, Lorenzen missed a big chunk of the season. In the 27 games (29 innings), Lorenzen only gave up runs in seven. Out of those seven games, there were only three games in which Lorenzen gave up more than two runs.
Another plus to adding Lorenzen is his versatility. Though he started out as a starting pitcher, he spent the last few seasons with the Reds as more of a relief pitcher. He’s filled both roles in various points throughout his career, so it would not be a major move for him to be the fourth or fifth spot of the rotation or a bulk innings reliever. The Rays tend to put their pitchers in non-traditional roles, and Lorenzen is adaptable enough to fill in where necessary.
While there are a lot of talented free agent starting pitchers available this offseason, the choices dwindle down when it comes to those who fall in the Rays’ price range. Out of those available pitchers, I felt that Anderson and Lorenzen has the most upside and can be a more reliable options in the rotation than Rasmussen and Yarbrough. Regardless of whether the Rays’ end up signing either of them, I think they are two of the more undervalued free agents out of the starting pitchers this offseason.
Are there any free agent pitchers you would like to see the Rays sign?