Former first rounder Josh Lowe’s first exposure to the Majors was underwhelming. In his debut season (2022) Lowe had a below average OPS of .627 and poor strikeout rate of 33%. He wasn’t able to transfer his above average raw power to the game, with only a 5% barrel rate. However, he’s off to a much hotter start this year, with a .995 OPS and 9 home runs through 121 PA. What is he doing differently and better this season compared to last?

If you prefer video breakdowns, check out this video:

1.    Doing Damage Early in the Count

Josh Lowe has 18 extra base hits on the year. Of those 18:

• 12 (67%) have come on the second pitch or prior
• 14 (78%) have come on the third pitch or prior

He is doing most of his damage on pitches early in the count. That being said, Lowe is actually swinging at the first pitch 4% less frequently than in 2022. So while he is looking for pitches early on, he is not necessarily being overly aggressive and swinging at the very first pitch he sees.

2. Doing Damage in the Heart of the Zone

One of Lowe’s issues in 2022 was that he struggled to do damage on pitches thrown to the heart of the zone. Based on his swing take profile from Baseball Savant below, he has a run value of -9 on those pitches.

This is much improved so far this year, as Lowe has a run value of +4 on pitches to the heart.

It’s hard to be a consistent and productive hitter if you can’t capitalize on these pitches, and Lowe has done a great job this season of taking advantage.

This improvement is likely tied to the first point about Lowe doing damage early in the count. Pitchers don’t want to fall behind, and will often throw in-zone for the first few pitches to get ahead. Recognizing this, Lowe is able to watch for something in-zone without the pressure of already being behind in the count.

3.    Striking Out Less and Swing Adjustments

Compared to 2022, Lowe is striking out 10% less and is making contact on pitches in-zone 4% more often. His 23% strikeout rate aligns with MLB average.

Adjustments made to his swing may be playing an influential role in this improvement.

Looking at his pre-pitch setup from 2022, we can spot several differences compared to 2023:

1. Lowe’s bat now starts on his shoulder.
2. His hands are lower.
3. In 2022, Lowe had a foot tap. His foot is now planted and does not tap while waiting for the pitch.

While I don’t typically like it when batters start with their bat on their shoulder, Lowe said in an interview with MLB Network that starting in this position makes him feel more relaxed.

Here is a quote from his interview:

“I feel like I can relax and take a few deep breaths before the pitch actually comes in”

Josh Lowe on MLB Network, in reference to starting an at-bat with the bat on his shoulder.

Eliminating the foot tap may be helping Lowe improve his timing. Sometimes foot taps can cause delays or for the motion of the swing to become out of sync.

Looking at his load from 2022, we can spot several differences compared to 2023:

• His hands remain lower.
• He is getting more rotation

Getting more rotation in his swing gives Lowe more access to his power because more of his body is contributing to the swing. There is more energy that can be transferred to make solid contact.

Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a side view from 2022 for a comparison, but I found one from this year:

What I want to point out here is the separation Lowe is getting between his head and hands after load, but before his front foot hits the ground. His hands are staying back while his body begins to move to the ball. This separation allows him slightly more time before he has to commit to a swing.

Concluding Thoughts:

Josh Lowe’s career has been exciting to follow since he was drafted, and it is so exciting that things are starting to click for him this season. Turns out the Rays have a lefty power bat after all.