Tampa Bay Rays Trade Deadline Preview: Catching Targets and Thoughts About the Offense and Bullpen

The Tampa Bay Rays are among the best teams in baseball this season, but are in the midst of a Division battle with the Orioles, who are now in first place in the AL East. Both teams have a competitive rest of the season and with the trade deadline approaching on August 1^st, things can get interesting. In this post, we’ll look at what the Rays might do this deadline.

If you prefer video breakdowns, check out this video:

Upgrading Catcher

In terms of needs, there is only one major need that stands out to me: Catcher.

Christian Bethancourt and Francisco Mejía are not providing much offensively or defensively. They are hitting .228/.251/.391 and .223/.255/.399 respectively.  In terms of defense, Bethancourt is a below average framer and blocker, but has plus pop times and a strong arm. Mejía is a poor framer and blocker, but has a strong arm.

Fun fact: Mejía and Bethancourt actually have the two strongest catcher arms in baseball on average (among catchers with a minimum of 5 throws to second base), per Baseball Savant.

Mejía was removed from last night’s game and was placed on the 10-day IL today (7/21) with a left knee strain. René Pinto was recalled from Triple A, who hit .253/.306/.521 so far there this season. Pinto has power, but has serious swing and miss issues and does not walk.

Which catchers may be of interest?

While options are limited at this point in the season, here are the catchers I think could prove to be an upgrade:

• Yan Gomes (Cubs): Gomes has a club option for 2024 and is hitting .260/.306/.403 so far this season. Offensively, he is an upgrade:

It’s also worth noting that Gomes’ has historically been much better when facing left-handed pitchers. He has a career .809 OPS against them, compared to his career .669 OPS against right-handed pitchers. This aligns with the platoon advantage, but Bethancourt and Mejía are both below average hitters against both hands in their careers. Bethancourt has a .648 OPS against left-handed pitchers and Mejía (switch hitter) has a .687 OPS against left-handed pitchers as a right-handed hitter (his better side).

Defensively, Gomes is not providing much. He is a well below average framer, and his arm strength on average is at the bottom of the league.

• Jake Rogers (Tigers): Rogers has a .735 OPS this season. While his raw power is below average, he does a good job of using what power he has in-game. His barrel rate is 16% and he has a .486 xSLG and 49% hard hit rate. He strikes out a lot (34% strikeout rate), but also walks at an above average 11% rate.

In addition to being an offensive upgrade, Rogers can also provide a defensive upgrade in terms of framing:

For reference, the average strike rate is 46%. Rogers’ 50% strike rate has him ranked 6^th best in baseball among qualified catchers, per Baseball Savant.

Framing is incredibly valuable for catchers, as it impacts every pitch of a game. Baseball Savant quantifies its value through “catcher framing runs”. Rogers has 5 framing runs this season, and is tied for 5^th best in baseball among qualified catchers.

This wasn’t always the case. In 2021 Rogers was a below average framer, with -3 framing runs. One reason to believe the improvement is sustainable is because Rogers changed his setup. In 2021, he was using a traditional catching setup (standard squat). This season, he is opting to use a one-knee down setup, which has helped catchers frame more effectively. You can see the difference in the image below.

With about 3.5 years remaining under team control, Rogers’ price tag is much higher than Gomes’. It is also not clear whether the Tigers would be willing to part with Rogers. While they are not competing this season, they have been rebuilding for a long time now. With new President of Baseball Operations, Scott Harris, the Tigers are reworking their organizational philosophies and development strategies. In an interview with MLB.com, Harris spoke about the need to “acquire, develop, and retain young players”. Depending on Harris’ timeline for the Major League team to compete, it might make sense to listen to trades for Rogers in return for those young players he believes will help.

It Would Be Nice if the Rays Added…

Two other areas to upgrade are:

• Adding another bat to the lineup
• Adding another reliever

I don’t think that either of these are things that the Rays have to do, but they also can’t hurt.

The Rays’ Offense

The Rays’ offense has been better this season than in years past due to a combination of players stepping up.

Yandy Diaz is having an incredible season. His 56% hard hit rate is elite and puts him at the top of the league. He has been a well-rounded contributor by showing his elite contact quality, ability to walk, and above average bat to ball skills all season.

Randy Arozarena started leaning more on information from advance scouting reports to aid his in-game decisions and it has paid off. He is walking more than last season and is showing plus power, with an elite hard-hit rate of 51%.

Luke Raley was a roster fringe last season but has an elite .525 xSLG and has been a major part of the Rays’ offense. With power being his carrying tool, he has been able to use it consistently in-game this season to become an offensive weapon.

While it’s great that the Rays’ offense has been more of a team effort than in years past, many of their position players do not have consistent success at the plate and are not well-rounded hitters. Jose Siri, for example, has plus contact quality with a .495 xSLG, but has below average bat to ball skills with a poor 34% strikeout rate (bottom 2% of the league) and below average plate discipline, with walk rates and chase rates that are historically worse than average (6% and 37% this season, respectively). For reference, average chase rate is 28%. Josh Lowe has a similar profile, with a .471 xSLG, 27% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, and 38% chase rate.

Additionally, key offensive contributors Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco have not been a major part of the Rays’ offensive success so far. Brandon Lowe has been dealing with back issues and spent about a month on the IL. He is hitting .206/.306/.397 through 229 PA.

While Wander Franco has a lot of great offensive qualities, like his elite 14% strikeout rate and his ability to use the whole field, with a .792 OPS so far this season he has not yet lived up to expectation of carrying the Rays’ offensively.  While this is certainly a lot of ask of one player, I consider Franco to be one of the more well-rounded and high-ceiling players on the Rays and want him to perform as such.

I recognize I am holding the team’s offense to a high standard. However, my goal is just to show that even though the offense has been doing well overall, it would be nice to see more consistent and high-level contributions from the players who should be doing so. And it certainly would not hurt to add another bat as insurance.

The Rays’ Bullpen

While typically among the best in baseball, in a shocking turn of events the Rays bullpen has been struggling this season. They rank 23^rd in baseball with a 4.38 FIP and are tied for 27^th in baseball with a 27% strikeout rate.

This is due in part to several injuries:

• Closer Pete Fairbanks missed about a month and a half due to forearm inflammation and hip inflammation.
• Andrew Kittredge is recovering from Tommy John surgery and has yet to pitch this season (though is expected to return in the next few weeks).
• Garrett Cleavinger is on the 60-day IL with a sprained knee.
• Shawn Armstrong came off the 60-day IL (neck tightness) in early June.

While some of the Rays’ pitchers are slowly making their way back to pitch this year (Kittredge, Springs), you can never have too much pitching. Especially when considering how common injuries are and the heavy workload of pitchers heading into the last few months of the season.

Concluding Thoughts

While it would be nice to get another pitcher or two and another bat, I don’t think that these are two moves the Rays absolutely need to make.

Upgrading catcher is the most urgent need that needs to be addressed. However, the Rays were comfortable deploying Bethancourt and Mejía as the catching tandem at the beginning of the season. Because of that and considering the limited catching options available, I would not be surprised if the Rays decide to stick it out with those two.

What do you think the Rays should do this deadline?