Should Yankee Fans Worry About Gerrit Cole?

It’s always a risk when teams sign a big free agent, especially when it’s for $324 million. When the Yankees picked up Gerrit Cole this offseason, they made the decision to invest in someone they believe will be a quality pitcher for the next decade. So far this season Cole has been doing well. But, there are some noticeable differences if we compare his performance in 2019 to this season. Should we worry about Gerrit Cole going forward?

Cole is Being Hit Much Harder this Year

Looking at how Cole is being hit this year, we can see that so far he is being hard hit 44% of the time this year, 9% more than he was last season. His strikeout rate also declined by 6%, but it is still 10% higher than MLB average.

What are the Results of His Pitches?

Not only is Cole getting hit harder, but he’s also giving up more hits. The SLG against all of his pitches, except the slider, is higher than last season. This means that hitters have been better at seeing his pitches, and capitalizing on them to get extra bases.

Did Cole Change His Pitch Mix?

I figured one of the reasons Cole might be getting hit harder is that he switched his pitch mix when coming to the Yankees. However, so far this season he is throwing each of his pitches the same amount that he has in previous years.

Cole Eliminated the Sinker

Cole never through the sinker much (only about 10% of the time throughout this entire career), but he hasn’t used it at all this year so far. The elimination of this pitch is the only meaningful difference between his pitch usage by percent from previous years to this year.

I don’t find this to be a big impact on him, however, because barely threw it in 2019 (0.33% of the time). The use of the sinker is decreasing in baseball overall, and it seems like Cole has been shifting away from it for a while now.

Is Cole Changing When he Uses Certain Pitches?

Even though the amounts of each pitch are the same from last year to this year, he could be changing when he chooses to throw them.

This is what I found, broken up into versus right handed hitters (RHH) and versus left handed hitters (LHH).

Versus RHH:

• First Pitch: Using the slider less, and the curveball more
• With Two Strikes: Not a notable difference, still primarily throws the fourseam

Versus LHH:

• First Pitch: Using the fourseam slightly less, and the curveball slightly more
• With Two Strikes: Using the fourseam less. Using the slider more and the curveball slightly more.

Out of his four pitches, Cole uses the change-up the least. So he is really relying on his fourseam, curveball, and slider as primary pitches to deceive hitters for strikeouts.

According to the information above about which pitches he is using first pitch and with two strikes, we see that the curveball usage has increased in almost all instances. If we take a look at where the curveballs thrown this season so far have ended up, we can see that they are not falling for strikes.

This may be impacting Cole’s performance. The curveball is a key pitch for him, especially in key counts like first pitch and with two strikes. If he cannot pitch it for strikes, his pitch mix is further limited, making him a more predictable pitcher. This may be a contributing reason why hitters have been more successful against him this season.

Concluding Thoughts and Quick Notes

• Cole is getting hit harder
• His pitch mix hasn’t changed, but hitters are more successful against him
• He is using the curveball more in key counts (first pitch and with two strikes), but he is struggling throwing it for strikes

So should we start to worry about Gerrit Cole? I don’t think it’s time to panic yet, but the way he is being hit is definitely something to keep an eye on in the next couple of seasons.