Mets closer Edwin Díaz is not exactly a fan favorite. Since joining the Mets in 2019, he hasn’t quite been able to replicate his all-star numbers from when he was with the Mariners. Seven blown saves his first year made Mets fans turn against him, and they’ve been holding their grudge ever since. But is it time to re-evaluate and give Díaz another chance?
BABIP and Bad Luck
When the ball is put in play, anything is possible and the result is not always the fault of the pitcher. BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a statistic that helps evaluate pitchers. When pitchers have BABIP’s that are significantly greater than average (over .300), it can be indicative of events beyond the pitcher’s control.
Looking at Díaz’s BABIP over his career, we can see that it jumped over the average value of .300 during his time with the Mets. The Mets’ defense has been a team weakness for several years now, and its possible bad luck played into some of Díaz’s worse performances.
ERA and FIP
To further back-up the possibility that Díaz experienced bad luck in his outings, we can compare his ERA to his FIP. Fielding Independent Pitching is similar to ERA, but removes defense from the equation.
The biggest difference between ERA and FIP occurs the year Díaz struggled the most, 2019. This combined with the high BABIP indicates that Díaz may have been a victim to defensive issues.
Not all Bad Luck
I’m not saying that all of Díaz’s struggles were because of the Mets defense and bad luck. In fact, during the 2019 season, Díaz was to blame for 15 home runs in 58 IP. That’s a HR/9 rate of 2.3 home runs per 9 innings, which is extremely high, especially for a relief pitcher. His flyball percentage that season was a career high 30%.
Since 2019, however, Díaz’s flyball rate has decreased significantly, as he only allowed 2 home runs during the 2020 season.
Why Díaz Deserves a Second Chance
So far this season Díaz has done a great job at limiting hard hit balls and has yes to give up a barreled ball. Nearly every year of his career Díaz has a strikeout rate that is in the top 1% of the league. In 2020 it was 46%. That means nearly one every two batters is getting struck out.
In terms of his pitches, his fourseam fastball has above average horizontal movement and induces weak contact. Both his fourseam and his slider generate high whiff percentages (swing and miss).
Díaz’s walk rate was a career high last season, at 11%, but it is regressing back to league average (9%) so far this season.
The effectiveness of relief pitchers is volatile from year to year. Díaz had one rough season in 2019, but has proven to be one of the best relief pitchers in the game during his time with the Mariners. He still has it in him, as he rebounded and improved his numbers in 2020. He is still bound to have ups and downs (as any relief pitcher does), but Mets fans should be more open to giving him a second chance this season.
What do you think of Edwin Díaz?