Tanner Houck is one of my favorite pitchers on the Red Sox this season. While he is likely to start the season in the bullpen, I believe that he has the potential to be a starter long-term.
If you prefer to watch player breakdowns, check out this video:
Overview and Delivery Notes:
Houck has a low ¾ delivery, almost sidearm. He throws four pitches: Sinker, Fourseam, Slider, and Splitter.
He uses the sinker and slider combination in the east/west plane, and the fourseam and splitter in the north/south plane. This means that hitters can face pitches moving to any quadrant of the zone.
Houck posted a 3.15 ERA last season with an average walk rate. While his strikeouts dipped from 2021 (31% to 23%), he’s been getting more ground balls and weak contact. This is in part due to some tweaks in his pitch usage. In 2022, Houck started throwing his sinker more and his fourseam a little less. He had a successful season, and based on his pitch offerings I think he is poised to have another successful year. Let’s take a closer look.
Tanner Houck vs. RHH
When facing right-handed hitters, Houck relies primarily on his sinker and his slider, and occasionally mixes in his fourseam.
Sinker vs RHH: 42%
The sinker is harder than average at 94.5-mph and gets plus sink and slightly above average run. It also gets great results.
The sinker gets more chase and in-zone miss than average, as well as a high ground ball rate. The only thing is that Houck is throwing the pitch in-zone 11% less than average. This is not a huge red flag because he gets such great chase on the pitch, but given the above average movement profile, I wonder if he struggles to command it at times.
Slider vs RHH: 40%
Houck’s slider gets above average sweep and slightly above average depth and is thrown slightly harder than average at 85mph.
Looking at the pitch results, the slider isn’t generating as much swing and miss as the sinker. However, it is also not resulting in damage. The expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) of the pitch is over 100 points better than average. Additionally, the ground ball rate and average exit velocity against the slider are both better than average.
Unlike the sinker, Houck is throwing the slider in-zone an average amount (40% of the time).
Fourseam vs RHH: 17%
Houck mixes in a fourseam when facing right-handed hitters, which breaks up the east/west profile of pitches they are seeing by throwing it to the upper third of the zone. The fourseam gets well below average ride and slightly better than average run.
Houck throws the fourseam in-zone 5% more frequently than average, but still gets above average chase when he throws it out of zone. Even though the fourseam has a higher than average hard contact rate (rate at which it is hit harder than 95-mph), the xwOBA of the pitch is still better than average.
Summary vs RHH
When facing right-handed hitters, Houck is primarily focused on the east/west plane with the fourseam hitting the north quadrant of the zone. The sinker and the slider are both above average offerings. Since the fourseam does not play as well as the sinker and slider, it makes sense that he is not using it as frequently. That being said, I am not suggesting Houck ditch the pitch altogether, as it provides another look to a different part of the zone to keep hitters off-balance.
Tanner Houck vs LHH
When facing left-handed hitters, Houck’s pitch usage changes dramatically, he even adds another pitch!
Slider vs LHH: 41%
The slider is Houck’s primary pitch when facing left-handed hitters. Similar to the slider’s results vs RHH, the slider is primarily used as a ground ball pitch. Houck is throwing it in-zone to generate weak contact. He gets 50% ground balls on his slider, which is 8% more than average.
Fourseam vs LHH: 33%
Houck uses his fourseam as his primary fastball when facing left-handed hitters.
The fourseam gets way more ground balls than average against left-handed hitters. It does not get as much chase and in-zone miss, but I don’t view this as a negative as long as Houck continues to get weak contact.
Splitter vs LHH: 14%
Finally we see how the splitter is being used! The splitter gets above average depth and run. He throws it to the lower third of the zone and below, but it is not getting ground balls.
Looks like the splitter is Houck’s weakest offering. It gets worse chase than average, and only average in-zone miss. In addition to the stats listed in the table above, it also gets hit hard, with an average exit velocity against of 92.
Sinker vs LHH: 12%
Just like he mixed in the fourseam vs right-handed hitters, Houck mixes in the sinker vs left-handed hitters.
The sinker generates a 75% ground ball rate vs. left-handed hitters, which is 20% more than MLB average. The catch here is that it also can get hit hard. Additionally, Houck seems to have trouble commanding his sinker. With a pitch like this that is generating so many ground balls, you’d want to throw it in-zone to get that weak contact. However, Houck’s zone rate is only 36%, which is 13% less frequent than average.
Summary vs LHH
The slider is Houck’s primary pitch when facing left-handed hitters. He leans on his fourseam more than his sinker and he also adds in a splitter, which allows him to throw on the east/west plane and the north/south plane.
Can Houck be a starter again?
While Houck is likely to start in the Red Sox bullpen this season, I believe he has the tools to be a starter. He has three above average pitches in terms of movement, and he is able to utilize them in a way that makes him effective vs. both hands.
Houck’s close to average walk rates in the past two seasons also indicate that he has enough control to start.
What do you think of Tanner Houck?