With the trade deadline coming up on August 31st, I’m excited to see what moves the Rays make. Currently in first place in the AL East, the Rays trade targets will definitely be players who can improve the team to prepare for the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays wanted to upgrade their rotation.
Why Would the Rays Trade Targets be Starting Pitching?
The Rays rotation currently includes:
- Tyler Glasnow
- Blake Snell
- Ryan Yarbrough
- Trevor Richards
- Charlie Morton*
*Charlie Morton is just returning from the 10-IL after experiencing shoulder inflammation.
Yonny Chirinos was also a key member of the rotation, but he is recently injured. Chirinos is expected to undergo season ending Tommy John surgery.
In terms of the remaining members of the rotation, Glasnow, Snell, and Yarbrough are all doing well so far. Trevor Richards hasn’t pitched that much this year and was average in 2019, but he is not someone I would want to depend on as a starter when it comes to September baseball and playoffs.
The nature of this season for all teams has been avoiding/overcoming injuries. With the quick “summer camp” to start the season, a lot of MLB coaches and players have expressed that they were not provided enough time to prepare for the season. As a result, we have seen a lot of injuries, especially among pitchers to start off the year.
The Rays are a team that depend on their pitching to keep them competitive. Another injury to the rotation could do serious damage, especially in a season where each game is worth so much more. By adding another reliable arm to the rotation, it would provide the insurance needed to get them playoff ready.
So who would the Rays be interested in?
Looking at pitchers on mostly non-competitive teams who will be free agents at the end of this year, I came up with the following list:
- Trevor Bauer (Reds)
- Kevin Gausman (Giants)
- Martin Perez (Red Sox)
- Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks)
- Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks)
- Mike Minor (Rangers)
- Taijuan Walker (Mariners)
Now, that being said, I don’t think everyone on here is necessarily a realistic add for the Rays this year. Let’s quickly go through each.
Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer has been incredible this year and would be a great add for the Rays, but I’m not sure that the Reds would want to let go of him. With the expanded playoffs, more teams are able to make the postseason. With the Reds currently in 3rd place (could argue 2nd place, as the Cardinals have played 9 less games), I doubt they will be looking to sell their best starter. It would be a big deal for their organization to get into the playoffs this season. And once you’re in, anything can happen in a short series.
Kevin Gausman
I really like Kevin Gausman as a Rays trade target because he is good pitcher with potential. He has high strikeout and whiff rates (swing and miss), and limits hard hit balls. He also has great fastball velocity and above average spin. I think the Rays pitching coaches could work with him to improve his game this year even more.
Martin Perez
So far this year, Martin Perez has been great at limiting hard hit balls in play. He also has pretty good movement on this fourseam and sinker. His only caveat is a $500K buyout at the end of the season, that the Rays would either have to cover, or the Red Sox would cover in exchange for a slightly better prospect. I also am not confident that the Rays would want to trade with the Red Sox, despite Chaim Bloom (former Rays’ Assistant GM) becoming GM of the Red Sox. They are division rivals and looking to rebuild, and I wouldn’t want to give a prospect with strong potential to them.
Robbie Ray
I have mixed feelings about Robbie Ray. He has above average velocity on his fastball, slider, and curveball, and good spin on his fastball. He also has a slightly above average strikeout rate and a high whiff rate. That being said, he also has a very high walk rate so far this year, gets hit hard, and has a high barrel rate against him. He’s not my first choice for the Rays, but isn’t necessarily a bad choice either. It seems like he has potential, and is someone the Rays could work with to achieve better results.
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly was formally a Durham Bull. Similarly to Martin Perez, he also has a club option with a $500K buyout. He has good spin on his fastball and curve, but the velocity isn’t really there. He also gets hit hard, has high barrel rate against him, and below average whiff rates.
Mike Minor
Mike Minor is on the Rangers and similarly to the Reds, the Rangers might be another team that attempts to propel themselves into the expanded playoffs. Minor’s career numbers are good, he limits hard hit balls, has good spin on his fastball and above average spin on his curveball. He also gets pretty good horizontal movement on his changeup. However, this year he is not performing anywhere near as well as he was last year. So even if the Rangers are open to trading him, it may be a little risky.
Taijuan Walker
Taijuan Walker gets good movement on his fourseam fastball and cutter, and limits hard hit balls. But, he also has a below average strikeout rate and whiff rate on the year. In addition, he has below average spin on both his fastball and curveball. Looking at his career, not much is different. He used to have an average strikeout rate, but he’s never been good at limiting barrel rate, and has always been hit hard (average or higher). He was hurt in 2018 and 2019, missing a significant portion of the 2019 season. I personally think the Rays could get a better insurance option for their rotation, as Walker may be an injury liability.
Rays Trade Targets: My List
After narrowing down that initial list of potential Rays trade targets, here is the handful that I believe would be realistic and a good fit for the Rays:
- Kevin Gausman (Giants)
- Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks)
- Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks)
- Mike Minor (Rangers)
The order shown above is the order that I would want them. There is a gap in my mind between Gausman and the others, but any additional pitching help can’t hurt. I’m sure the Rays will be making some serious moves come the deadline, and I’m super excited to see what they get.
Do you agree with my list? Let me know in the comments below.
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