Rays Keys to Success Against the Braves

The Braves are a tough team to beat. They basically turned last night’s game against the Mets into a home run derby. Austin Riley crushed a ball that I am pretty sure has not landed yet. While the Rays took 2 out of 3 against Toronto, they need to perform better overall if they want to take the series against the Braves. What are the keys to success for the Rays this week?

Stepping Up Offensively

The Rays bats were pretty quiet over the weekend against Toronto, with the exception of a few players who really stepped up. The Braves are a team who gets on base consistently and manufactures runs, so it’s important that the Rays can keep up.

The key to success for the Rays is to get on base. Brandon Lowe and Ji-Man Choi really stood out offensively over the weekend. Choi even got experimental and batted righty for the first time since 2015. Spoiler alert, it resulted in a home run!

The worry for me is that there was such a drastic difference between Lowe and Choi at-bats, and most at-bats of the other Rays players.

The Braves Starting Pitching is Filled with Righties

Looking ahead to the Braves series, the Rays will be facing three right handed starting pitchers.

• Mike Foltynewicz (RHP)
• Kyle Wright (RHP)
• Mike Soroka (RHP)
• Max Fried (LHP) – not confirmed yet

While right handed pitchers are not a problem for Lowe, Choi, Adames and Diaz, there is a noticeable weakness against righties for some Rays players. Check out the 2019 splits below for Kiermaier, Margot, Martinez, and Renfroe. Out of the bunch, Renfroe is the only Ray so far who does not have a hit this year.

Kevin Kiermaier

Manuel Margot

Jose Martinez

Hunter Renfroe

*Red indicates a lefty batter

Kiermaier and Margot have the worst numbers against righties for 2019, but their speed may allow them to get an infield hit or bunt their way onto the bases if they are struggling at the plate.

Improvements in the Braves Bullpen

While the bullpen was a weakness of the Braves last year, two key additions significantly improve it going into the 2020 season. The Braves added 2019 all-star pitchers Will Smith and Shane Greene. Those two new pitchers plus returning Luke Jackson and Mark Melancon allows the Braves to have a much more competitive bullpen this year.

Will Smith, however, was just cleared yesterday to play (was on COVID-IL) so it is unlikely that the Rays will face him.

Signs of Hope

Manuel Margot and Jose Martinez in particular put together some really good at-bats against Toronto that drew walks. Both of these walks put the Rays in a great position to put pressure on Toronto. In Martinez’s case, it allowed Kiermaier to hit his walk off double to win yesterday’s game.

Patience and being in control at the plate it key, and I’d like to see more of that from the Rays going forward. Nothing is more frustrating than a quick/rushed at-bat that results in a strikeout.

Mike Zunino has been working really hard during quarantine to get himself in a better position offensively this year. He also said that he feels more comfortable with the team now in general. Hopefully his hard work will pay off and we can depend a little more on him this year.

Limiting the Braves Offense

Once the Braves get going, they really have the potential to explode (see last night’s 14-1 win over the Mets). The Rays don’t typically have to worry about pitching, but the circumstances of starting the season this year are unusual.

Tonight we will see Tyler Glasnow take on the Braves lineup. Glasnow has the potential to be this year’s CY Young winner for the American league. His curveball spin rate and fastball velocity are both in the top 6% of the league.

Yonny Chirinos will also take the mound, but it is unclear how he will perform. Chirinos just joined back with the club this past Sunday after spending two weeks on the COVID-IL.

The remaining two pitchers are yet to be announced, but I would expect a lot of bullpen use later on in this series.  

Rays pitching this weekend was not up to the shutout level fans got used to last year. I think the main reason for this is because the pitchers are not accustomed to preparing for a season the way they typically are in spring training. They had significantly less time and were not exposed to playing against other teams.

Despite the circumstances, the Rays pitching showed that they will be just fine. Alvarado pitched extremely well in yesterday’s game. The movement on his pitches was crazy and his ability to throw them as strikes was key. Check out this crazy slider that caught Hernandez looking:

There is not one doubt in my mind that the Rays can take the Braves. They just need to focus and play their best. Looking forward to a competitive series!