On Thursday, the Twins traded Nelson Cruz (DH) and prospect Calvin Faucher (RHP) to the Rays for prospects Joe Ryan (RHP) and Drew Strotman (RHP).  This deal is a little out of the ordinary for the Rays, who don’t usually trade for players who will become free agents at the end of the same season they are acquired. But the Rays have been talking about Nelson Cruz for a few years now, so let’s take a look at what makes him such a big get, and what the rest of the trade looks like.
The Rays Finally Add a Bat: Nelson Cruz
The Rays do a lot of things right, but pitching and defense are their most prevalent strengths. Offense comes as a secondary bonus, as the team numbers on the year are not the most impressive:
That being said, their current offense is enough to keep them afloat and has proven that it’s capable of manufacturing runs, getting timely home runs, and not surrendering even when the Rays fall behind. But the biggest hole in their offense this season is the presence of a true designated hitter. And that’s where Nelson Cruz comes in.
Player Breakdown:
Nelson Cruz is a great right handed hitter who consistently hits the ball well. Throughout his 14 year career, Cruz has consistently had plus exit velocity and excellent hard hit rates. This season, his average exit velocity is 92.3 mph (top 5% of the league) and his hard hit rate is 53% (top 6% of the league).
He has power to the straight and pull sides, and has a .243 ISO (isolated power) on the year. For reference, a .140 ISO is average, and anything over .250 is elite.
But Cruz isn’t just a plus power hitter. He also gets on base consistently. His OBP this season is .370 (wOBA is .379) and his walk rate is 10.1%, which is 2% more than league average. His strikeout rate is also better than league average this season, at 18%.
In terms of plate approach, Cruz’s has been pretty consistent over the last few years. But this season, he’s been much more aggressive first pitch. He is swinging first pitch 43% of the time, which is up from 27% of the time in 2020. Looking at his career and season numbers first pitch against each pitch type, it seems like this strategy should work for him:
Cruz will certainly amplify the Rays offense and be a major contributor going forward. I can’t wait to start watching him play with the rest of the team.
What about the rest of the trade?
Rays Also Receive: Calvin Faucher
The Rays also received Double-A relief pitcher Calvin Faucher in the trade. Faucher does not have the most amazing numbers in the minor leagues so far, but the Rays can work with him to improve. So far this season, Faucher has a 7.04 ERA and a BB/9 of 7 (walks per 9 innings). One more promising stat is his strikeout rate. His K/9 is 12.3 in 19 games this year.
Faucher was being developed as a reliever in the Twins system. He has an average fastball with a better, hard slider. He has the tendency to struggle with command, but does have some upside due to the above average slider.
The Twins Return
Nelson Cruz didn’t come cheap. The Rays had to give up two of their top pitching prospects to acquire him: Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman.
Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan was the number 10 prospect in the Rays system, and has recorded a 3.63 ERA with a 11.8 K/9 and 1.58 BB/9 in 57 innings this season in Triple A. He has above average command and a plus fastball that generates a lot of swing and miss. Ryan also throws a slider as his secondary pitch, and also mixes in a curveball and change-up. He relies on his fastball to limit damage, as his secondary stuff needs to be further developed. He is projected to be a mid-rotation starter.
Drew Strotman
Drew Strotman was ranked 17th in the Rays system. In 58.1 innings in Triple A this season, Strotman recorded a 3.39 ERA, 9.6 K/9, and 5 BB/9. Similarly to Ryan, Strotman also has an above average fastball with plus velocity. He also throws a plus slider, curveball, and below average change-up. Strotman did suffer a setback in 2018 when he needed Tommy John surgery, but has since regained his plus command. In 2020, he worked on adding a cutter to deepen his repertoire even further. Since he’s implemented the cutter, it has worked very well with his fastball. Strotman is also projected to be a starting pitcher.
Who Won this Trade?
This is the million dollar question. The Rays gave up two very highly regarded pitching prospects, but have been set on acquiring Cruz for the past several seasons. The Rays could definitely use an experienced hitter like Cruz to help further light that fire that will help them get back to the World Series this year. That being said, the winner of the trade is contingent on how much of an offensive contributor Cruz ends up being. If the Rays win the World Series, there’s no question this trade was worth it. But the way it looks right now with the Rays still being a weaker team than they were in 2020, I think this trade is favoring the Twins.