As we head into the beginning of Spring Training, the Rays have some interesting position battles among their position players. They are only allowed to carry thirteen position players on the 26-man roster. Let’s look at who they have, and who is more likely to make the Opening Day roster.
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Catcher Prediction: Christian Bethancourt & Francisco Mejía
Catcher poses a major roster hole for the Rays, as none of their 40-man options are fit to have a starting catching role on a competitive team. They are better suited as backups or emergency help options. René Pinto has a shot at developing into a starting catcher, but I don’t think he will have that opportunity just yet.
While I predict Christian Bethancourt and Francisco Mejía will earn the starting and backup catcher roles, I’d prefer if we swapped out Mejía for Pinto.
While I had high hopes for Francisco Mejía, last season after Mike Zunino’s injury Mejía lost the starting catching job to Bethancourt. Mejía has one remaining option, so the Rays would be able to have Mejía start the season in Triple A without risking losing him on waivers to another team.
Of the three catchers, I believe Pinto has the highest offensive ceiling. He didn’t do well in his debut last season, but has above average raw power. While Mejía has the benefit of being a switch hitter, Pinto has competitive numbers vs both hands. Pinto’s splits from Triple A are better than Mejía’s career splits in the Majors:
While we can expect some regression in Pinto’s splits at the Major League level, he has more upside and power potential than Mejía.
Bethancourt and Pinto are also better defensively than Mejía. Per Baseball Savant’s catcher framing leaderboard, Bethancourt and Pinto have better catcher framing runs and strike rates than Mejía:
Even if Pinto does not reach his minor league numbers, he is at least providing more defensive value.
First/Third Base Prediction: Yandy Díaz & Isaac Paredes
This offseason, the Rays and Yandy Díaz agreed to a three-year $24 million extension. While Díaz spent most of the time at third base last season, he provides poor defense at that position and is better suited for first base. I expect we will see him playing both positions this year.
Similarly, Isaac Paredes provides below average defense at third base (though he did well last year according to defensive metrics), but he has a better arm than Díaz and might be a better fit for third. While I considered including Jonathan Aranda as a corner infielder, Paredes is out of options and is likely to make the opening day roster over Aranda for that reason.
Second Base Prediction: Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe is a lock for second base this season. He missed time last season due to a back injury. Per Adam Berry at MLB.com, Lowe does not require surgery on his back. He should be ready to start the season. Lowe in the lineup is a must for the Rays, as he has been a major offensive contributor when healthy.
Shortstop Prediction: Wander Franco
Wander Franco is a lock for shortstop. Franco also dealt with injuries last season, including a hamate fracture in his right wrist that kept him out for over two months. His health is a must for the Rays, as he is another key component of the Rays’ offense.
Outfield Prediction: Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, & Manuel Margot/Josh Lowe
Randy Arozarena and Jose Siri seem like locks for the left field and center field roles, respectively. In right field, however, there is an opportunity to platoon Manuel Margot and Josh Lowe.
While Lowe has incredible splits vs both hands in Triple A, there is more of a gap when looking at his career:
Based on the two tables above, Margot is better suited to face left-handed pitchers and Lowe right-handed pitchers. This is a big season for Josh Lowe, who is running out of opportunities to prove that he can contribute at the Major League level. Platooning would allow him to get more favorable matchups, and hopefully get him headed in the right direction.
Designated Hitter Prediction: Harold Ramírez
Harold Ramírez is likely to be designated hitter over playing a position because he provides poor defense at first base and in the outfield. He has plus raw power (top 8% of the league in 2022) and above average hard-hit rates (5% better than average). He also has good contact rates (3% better than MLB average in his career). Unlike some other teams who have players dedicated for DH, the Rays switch around positions based on matchups. It is unlikely that we only see Ramírez as a DH, but based on the Rays’ current roster, Ramírez seems like the best fit for the DH role.
Remaining Bench (two spots) Prediction: Luke Raley, Vidal Bruján
Extra Corner Infielder: Luke Raley vs Jonathan Aranda
While Jonathan Aranda is also a corner infield candidate, I left him off the 26-man to start the year because 1B/LF Luke Raley is out of options. While Raley is candidate to be designated for assignment if a roster spot is needed, the Rays may want to keep him around at least to start the season to see if he provides anything offensively. They have more flexibility with Aranda, as he has two minor league options remaining and can start the season in the Minor Leagues without the risk of being lost to another team.
Extra Middle Infielder: Vidal Bruján vs Taylor Walls
Both Walls and Bruján are switch hitters, but neither are providing much at the plate.
While Taylor Walls is an elite defensive shortstop, there is not as much a need for him on the roster if the Rays other middle infielders, Franco and Lowe, stay healthy. Unlike Walls, Bruján provides below average defense, but is more versatile. The ability to play multiple positions is highly valuable, as Bruján can fill in the gaps when off days are needed.
Bruján is also a better fit to start the year on the 26-man because he is out of Minor League options. (Edit: Bruján is eligible for a 4th minor league option, so he has one option remaining to start the 2023 season. I still predict Bruján over Walls on the Opening Day roster).
Which position players do you think will end up on the Rays opening day roster?