Prospect Spotlight: Jeter Downs

Jeter Downs has been a popular name lately, especially amongst Red Sox fans because he was a major component of the Mookie Betts trade. He is a young shortstop with a lot of potential, and has been very successful so far in the minors. He was the number 8 prospect in the Dodgers’ organization before being traded.

Jeter Downs Quick Facts

• Hometown: San Andres, Colombia
• Position: Shortstop/ 2^nd Base
• Bats/Throws: Right/Right
• Age: 21
• Team Drafted: Cincinnati Reds
• Year Drafted: 2017
• Draft Round: Comp A, 32^nd Overall
• Current Team/Organization: Portland Sea Dogs (AA)/ Red Sox
• MLB Pipeline Rank 2020: 44

Scouting Report and Strengths

For those unfamiliar with scouting grades, grades are based on a 20-80 scale and 50 is average (the higher the better). The grades themselves shown below for Jeter Downs were taken from MLB.com.

Hit: 55

Downs is the type of hitter who gets base hits more often than hitting a home run. This means he is more likely to hit for average, not power. He makes contact, has a strikeout rate of less than 20%, and has good at-bats. He is a disciplined hitter, drawing 52 walks during his season in Class A (full) ball and 54 walks during the 2019 season at the Class A (advanced) level. (Class A advanced is a higher level than class A full).

He pulls the ball most of the time (get ready to see some shifts!), but is capable and working on using the whole field. Check out this spray chart, showing where all his hits in the minor leagues have landed, courtesy of baseball savant and MLB.com:

Pull side for right-handed hitters is left-field, where the majority of his hits have fallen.

Looking at his splits, Jeter Downs is capable of hitting well against left and right-handed pitchers, but favors left handed. For lefty/righty splits I used Downs’ numbers from Class A (advanced) because he’s had a lot more at-bats in that level than in Double-A so far.

He has good numbers all around, and has the ability to get on base consistently.

Power: 50

Most of Downs’ power is pull side. Scouts have noted that he tends to hit a lot of fly balls for someone who has the physical makeup of a ground ball/line-drive hitter.

Looking at a spray chart of just his home runs throughout his career in the minors is a great way to visualize where long fly balls are likely to end up. (Spray chart courtesy of baseball savant and MLB.com)

While he will probably end up hitting for average at the major league level, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see quite a few big hits from him throughout the season, especially doubles. In Class A (full) ball, Downs hit 23 doubles and 13 home runs. In Class A (advanced) ball, he hit 33 doubles and 19 home runs.  

Run: 50

For someone with average speed, Downs has a lot of stolen bases. He is described as a player who is aggressive on the basepaths. During his first year in Class A (full) ball, Downs stole 37 bases. At the Class A (advanced) level in 2019, Downs stole 23 bases. However, it is projected that Downs is more likely to steal closer to 10-15 bases per year in the majors and is likely to be a moderate stolen base threat.

Arm: 55

Downs has a slightly above average arm, which is part of the reason why some scouts think he would perform better as a second basemen (instead of a shortstop). In 2019, Downs played some second base at the Class A (advanced) level. Scouts noted that he has a solid throw from second. Downs may be stretched at shortstop, especially when playing deep.

Interesting Fact: When he was first drafted, some scouts suggested he may be a potential centerfielder as well. However, middle infield seems like his most realistic position at this point.

Field: 50

While his fielding grade is average, he has the potential of being a plus fielder over time. His lateral movement (important for fielding) is above average, and he charges the ball efficiently. He executes and makes the plays that is expected to.

Overall: 55

Jeter Downs is currently the Red Sox #2 prospect. He is only 21 years old and has time to further grow and develop as a player. I think he will be successful and has the ability to be an everyday second basemen. Between his plate discipline and ability to get on base, he will have his chance to prove himself in the majors.

Performance in Double-A So Far

Downs was promoted to Double-A in 2019 and played in 12 games. In these 12 games Downs got 16 hits and 5 home runs. This season we will get a better feel for his capabilities at this level. Those who have worked with him mention his presence and strong mindset, which will be important for him going forward (especially considering the pressure Boston is putting on him after this trade).

Concluding Thoughts:

Jeter Downs is a great player, and we will be hearing a lot about him in the next few years. Boston fans, go easy on him! He is not Mookie Betts and should not have to live up to a certain standard just because they traded for him. Downs will be an impact player who consistently gets on base and will be fun to watch. Plus, it certainly will be funny to see a Jeter on the Red Sox.

Headshot in Image Source: Baseballprospectus.com