Baltimore Orioles outfielder Kyle Stowers made his Major League debut in 2022 and slashed .253/.306/.418 across 34 games. While he is certainly off to a good start, I think Stowers has the potential to be even better in 2023.
If you prefer video breakdowns:
Power Potential from the Left Side of the Plate
Stowers’ biggest strength is his power and contact quality. At the Major League level in 2022, Stowers had a max exit velocity of 110-mph. While raw power is great, it doesn’t mean as much if it isn’t translating to game power.
There are three reasons why I think Stowers’ power will effectively translate.
- Of the 62 balls he put in play in the majors in 2022, 50% of them were hard hit (hit harder than 95-mph).
- By looking at Stowers’ batted ball profile, we can get a sense for whether his power is resulting in damage:
Stowers hits way more line drives than average, and fly balls at an average rate. He also hits fewer ground balls than average. While the data in the table is from a small sample, it is consistent with Stowers’ batted ball profiles from his time in the minor leagues (FanGraphs).
3. Stowers’ isolated power, ISO (calculation: SLG-AVG), has historically been very good. In Triple A (2022), Stowers has an ISO of .263. For reference, MLB average ISO in 2022 was .167 (FanGraphs).
Plate Discipline: Sees the Ball Well
Not only does Stowers hit the ball well, he also has a good eye. Historically, Stowers has showed an above average ability to swing at strikes, and had a Zone Swing rate of 76% in his Major League debut. That is 9% better than average.
He also has a consistently above average ability to walk throughout his Minor League career.
In his short time at the Major League level, he did not achieve as high of a walk rate as usual and chased 7% more than average. While this is not ideal, his ability to continue to swing at strikes at the Major League level and his historically above average plate discipline provides some hope that he can regain his approach and make better decisions at the plate.
Area of Improvement: Bat to Ball Skills
While Stowers is on a path towards being an above average offensive contributor through his raw power and good eye, his hit tool is fringe average.
Stowers has historically worse than average strikeout rates, and posted contact rate that was 9% worse than average during his time at the Major League level.
Stowers’ biggest weakness is elevated fastballs. He swings and misses (whiffs) the most at elevated fastballs and does the least amount of damage (SLG) against them.
That being said, one positive sign is that his zone contact rate in the majors was only 2% worse than average. So most of the whiffs are stemming from Stowers chasing pitches out of zone.
Ideally, we would now look at his whiffs and slugging percentage against off-speed and breaking pitches, but there is not a big enough sample at the Major League level to make any conclusions.
With his above average power and plate discipline, I don’t think his hit tool is going to weight him down too much. Just something to keep an eye on as he enters his second MLB season.
Quick Notes on Fielding
Stowers was a corner outfielder in 2022, and I believe that is where he will stay.
From watching some videos of him at the Major League level last season, I consider Stowers to be a below average fielder who is better suited for a corner outfield role than center field.
His sprint speed is below average, and he seems to move on the slower side in the outfield, which limits his range.
But, his arm strength appears to be above average. From a small sample of videos, his throw accuracy can be improved. For now, I would send a runner home (given an appropriate game situation) if he was fielding the ball.
Conclusion
Orioles fans have a lot to look forward to this season, and Kyle Stowers will certainly be a fun player to watch.
What do you think of Stowers?