Oakland’s top pitching prospect Mason Miller is through three starts at the Major League level. In his most recent outing, Miller no-hit the Seattle Mariners through 7 innings before being removed from the game due to pitch count.

In this post, we’ll look at how Miller has done so far, what he offers, and his biggest area of improvement.

If you prefer video breakdowns, check out this video:

Arsenal Overview and Usage by Batter Hand

Miller features two above average pitches (fourseam and slider), as well as a cutter and a changeup. Here’s a quick note on each one:

• Fourseam: Above average pitch. High velo (96-102mph) and above average ride.
• Slider: Above average pitch. Above average velocity (85-88mph) and plus sweep and depth. Mostly used vs right-handed hitters.
• Cutter: Below average pitch. Hard (93-97mph), but has below average cut and depth. Mostly used vs left-handed hitters.
• Changeup: Rare usage

Against right-handed hitters, Miller is primarily fastball (60%) but mixes in his slider 30% of the time. He also rarely mixes in the cutter (10%).

The slider has done very well so far when thrown in-zone, and has an in-zone miss rate of 36%, which is more than double that of league average. While this is a small sample, the results are still impressive.

It’s hard to tell so early on whether Miller is intentionally throwing the slider for chase occasionally, or if he has inconsistent control of the pitch. But since the slider gets below average chase and such incredible in-zone miss, it might be worth exploring throwing it in-zone more frequently if possible.

Against left-handed hitters, Miller is primarily fastball (52%) but mixes in his cutter 28% of the time. He also rarely throws his slider (12%) and his changeup (9%).

Some Reasoning Behind The Usage Breakdown:

Against right-handed hitters, Miller is leaning more heavily on a pitch that moves away from them. Sometimes hitters of the opposite hand (LHH) can have an easier time reading sliders coming out of a right-handed pitcher’s hand. So against those left-handed hitters, Miller is opting to use his cutter instead, which moves in on the hands of a lefty batter.

So far, I like Miller against right-handed hitters better. I like that there is more separation between the fourseam and slider velocity (~12mph compared to ~4mph between his fourseam and cutter). The slider is also an above average pitch and has a very different movement profile from the fourseam due to its depth.

It might be interesting to see Miller start using the changeup more against left-handed hitters as a pitch that moves away from them. But with such rare usage, we haven’t gotten a chance to look at the movement characteristics of the pitch. So, we can re-assess this point after he throws it a few more times.

Situational Usage

We saw Miller’s usage breakdowns by hand above, and he keeps that mix consistent in different situations (first pitch, two strikes, full count).

The change in usage comes when he is ahead in the count and behind in the count. When Miller is ahead, he mixes in his secondary offerings more frequently. When he is behind, he leans heavily on his fourseam.

Most Impressive Aspect: Limiting Barrels

Miller is having a rough time so far in terms of limiting hard contact. His overall hard-hit rate is 50%, which puts him in the bottom 8% of the league. His fourseam has the highest hard contact rate of his three most used pitches at 37%.

However, Miller has done well to limit barrels. He has yet to give up a home run despite being a fly ball pitcher. Looking at the radial chart below, there is only one barreled ball (barrel section is the bright red).

This may, in part, be due to the fourseam having above average ride. That combined with the high velocity makes it more difficult for hitters to barrel it consistently.

Biggest Area of Improvement: Falling Behind in the Count

One thing I’d like to see Miller improve is his tendency to fall behind in the count. His first pitch strike rate is 11% worse than MLB average at only 50%. It’s much more difficult to get a desired result when a pitcher falls behind.

My initial thought when I saw how often Miller falls behind was that he has poor control. But Miller’s control is surprisingly not bad. He has a high zone rate (51%) and a walk rate that is only slightly worse than average at 10%. He does not have many innings in the Minor Leagues, so there is not much to go on in terms of how his control is historically. That being said, his walk rates were not out of control in his limited Minor League sample either.

From watching him, it seems like his control is very hit or miss (pun intended). What I mean by this is that his control can vary dramatically and when he misses, it is an obvious miss.

Miller’s chase rate is 4% worse than average at 24%. Hitters are not getting tricked by pitches that end up out of zone.

The graphic below is a “Swing Take” graphic from Baseball Savant. It shows that of the 267 total pitches Miller has thrown, 35% of them have ended up in the “chase” and “waste” areas outside the strike-zone. Of those pitches, only 9% were swung at. And of those pitches that ended up in the “chase” area, hitters are taking those pitches 13% more frequently than average.

Ideally, we’d like to see more of those pitches end up in-zone, or at least in the “shadow” zone to trick hitters into swinging.

One thing I admired during his start against the Mariners was that Miller was able to mentally move on after walks and continued to compete. In the fourth inning, things got a little bit wild and Miller gave up two walks. He then came back out in the fifth and got three quick outs.

Note on Miller’s Mechanics

Miller doesn’t have the most fluid mechanics and can look stiff on the mound. His movements, especially when he brings his arm back, can look jerky. He has a large frame at 6’5” and 220 lbs and keeps himself compact/compressed.

The notes above are not necessarily bad things in terms of results, but they may be contributing to his shoulder injuries.