Mets Trade David Robertson to the Marlins for Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez: Player Breakdowns

The New York Mets traded RHP David Robertson to the Miami Marlins for two Rookie-level prospects: INF Marco Vargas and C Ronald Hernandez.

This trade is interesting for several reasons:

• You don’t typically see Division rivals trade high-leverage players like Robertson to one another.
• The Mets are selling. They are 17 games out of the Division and 7 out of the Wildcard. At the beginning of the season, I thought they would be in a Division race by this point.
• The Marlins are buying. Over halfway through the season and the Marlins are fighting for a Wildcard spot. Outside of 2020, the Marlins have not finished the season with  a winning record since 2010.

Marlins Receive: David Robertson, RP

Robertson has an elite 2.99 xERA through 44 IP this season, putting him in the top 8% of the League. He ha s a better than average 28% strikeout rate. While his walk rate was poor last season at 13%, he’s shown much better control this year with an average 8% walk rate.

He throws three pitches: Cutter, Curveball, Slider. Here is a breakdown of each one:

• Cutter: (92-94mph). Robertson’s primary fastball. Gets plus plus depth and average cut. Generates more swing and miss in-zone compared to average.
• Curveball: (82-85mph). Hard, knuckle curveball. Used primarily against left-handed hitters. Has above average depth and slightly above average sweep. Generates an elite 25% more chase to left-handed hitters compared to average for relievers.
• Slider: (84-86mph). Used primarily against right-handed hitters. Has slightly above average sweep and depth.

Overall, all three of his pitches get above average movement.

The curveball and the slider can sometimes look alike, though they have different grips. Robertson throws a knuckle curve, which he talks about in this video from 2018:

In the chart below form Baseball Savant, you can see that the movement profiles sometimes overlap:

Note: The slider and knuckle curve data points are the ones toward the bottom right, with the slider representing the upper half and the knuckle curve the lower half of the data grouping.

Generally speaking, you want to see two pitches have unique movement from one another, especially when they have similar velocities. However, I don’t think this is a big deal in Robertson’s case, as the two pitches are often used to different hands.

Robertson and Miami’s Recent Moves

Robertson is a rental (free agent at the end of this season) and will be used as a high leverage arm in the Marlins’ pen. This is the second trade the Marlins made this deadline to add a reliever. On July 26^th, the Marlins added RP Jorge López from the Twins in exchange for RP Dylan Floro. While López has been having a rocky year due to some mental health struggles, he has upside as a high velocity reliever with above average stuff and has an extra year under team control than Floro, who is a free agent at the end of this season.

The Marlins’ bullpen is ranked 12th in terms of FIP. I like these two moves because I don’t think strengthening the bullpen was a dire need. Instead, it is a move that better fortifies the roster for the playoffs and helps them navigate pitching injuries. The best moves are the ones that upgrade teams any way they can, and I am excited to see what else the Marlins do before the deadline.

Mets Receive: INF Marco Vargas and C Ronald Hernandez

INF Marco Vargas and C Ronald Hernandez are both very young (18 and 19, respectively) and early on in their development.

Vargas is a middle infielder who has shown plus control of the zone (24% BB Rate, 2023) and above average bat to ball skills (14% K Rate, 2023) during his two seasons in rookie ball.

Here is a video of Vargas hitting a home run earlier this season (June 28^th), courtesy of @FishOnFirst on Twitter:

Hernandez is a switch-hitting catcher. In 31 games this season he has a .916 OPS and, like Vargas, is showing plus control of the zone, with a 23% walk rate.

Without having seen these two players actually play, I will reserve opinion on their future potential. But if you look at them on your own, keep in mind that they still have a long way to go. I chose walk rate as something that stood out to me for both of them because it represents a raw skill that can translate as they reach higher levels of the Minors, and is a bare minimum for advancement to upper levels. While keeping this in mind, don’t forget that walk rate at the lower levels can often be inflated and deceiving, as pitchers do not have the control of Major League pitchers. So, pitches that end up outside the zone may be more obvious balls than we are used to seeing. Other things to keep an eye on is how many home runs and extra base hits they get (to show power) and their strikeout rates (to show hit tool/bat to ball skills). That being said, I would not harp on their power too much right now, as they are still growing into it.

What do you think of this trade?