The Mets caught every baseball fan’s attention when they were projected to be in first place in the NL East by PECOTA projections. To be fair, they also had the Mets winning the division in 2019, and that didn’t exactly work out. Regardless, the Mets have a pretty good team this year, strengthened by some offseason additions. So here is a Mets Preview for 2020, picthing edition.
The Mets Said Goodbye to…
This offseason, the Mets lost starter Zack Wheeler, third basemen Todd Frazier, and their new manager, Carlos Beltran.
Offseason Acquisitions
Some big signings for the Mets this offseason include:
- Jake Marisnick (CF)
- Michael Wacha (RHP)
- Rick Porcello (RHP)
- Dellin Betances (RHP)
The Mets also signed a bunch of free agent players to minor league deals, including Erasmo Ramirez (reliever), Eduardo Nunez (second basemen), and Matt Adams (first basemen).
Matt Adams was having some health issues but is back at spring training now, healthy and ready to play. However, as a first basemen, he may need to explore the possibility of playing a different position (like in the outfield). Pete Alonso has first covered, and already has Dominic Smith as a backup.
Starting Rotation
- Jacob deGrom
- Noah Syndergaard
- Marcus Stroman
- Rick Porcello
- Steven Matz
- Michael Wacha
It’s no secret that’s the Mets have a fantastic starting rotation. Even though they lost Zack Wheeler, they still have a lot of pitching depth. Jacob deGrom, debatably the best pitcher in New York, is coming off of a Cy Young year. Even though he is another year older, I think he will he just as dominant this season (especially after nabbing the Cy Young two years in a row).
deGrom isn’t the only Cy Young winner in the rotation now that Rick Porcello has joined. While the seasons after his Cy Young weren’t quite as impressive, if he can figure out how to avoid giving up a ton of hits and start trending back towards his peak he will be fine. The Mets coaching staff is so talented, I have a feeling they will help push him in the right direction.
Marcus Stroman, who joined the Mets in 2019, is unique because of his ability to pitch with many different timing variations. Check out one example below:
Even though he may not have the best fastball velocity, he certainly knows how to mess with hitters’ timing, which is a huge advantage.
Right now it seems like the Mets have six starting pitchers. The fifth spot will be awarded to either Matz, who has been a Met for 6 seasons, or Wacha, who is an offseason signing. Both Matz and Wacha have been performing well this spring. Matz pitched out of the bullpen a little bit in 2019, and he may end up there again this season. Wacha has had an injury history, including a shoulder strain that ended his season in September of 2019. But whatever the Mets decide to do with the rotation, it’s in really good shape.
Bullpen
The Mets bullpen was a little shaky last season, but let’s take a look at its potential for 2020.
Edwin Diaz
Edwin Diaz is most likely going to be the Mets closer again this season. After the best year of his career, Diaz shot up from a 1.96 ERA in 2018 to a 5.59 ERA in 2019. (Note that his FIP was 4.51 in 2019, so he may have gotten unlucky throughout the year). He was also in the bottom 2% of the league in hard hit percentage at roughly 45%. Hard hit percentage is the percent of balls off the bat that are travelling at 95 mph or faster. His strikeout rate, on the other hand, has consistently been in the top 1% of the league since the beginning of his major league career.
Diaz has potential this year to turn things around. His FIP being 1 run less than his ERA helps demonstrate that there were factors outside of his control affecting his numbers last year. If he can lessen his fly ball rate, this idea plus his strikeout rate allows some hope for this season.
Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo has some really great potential this season. Unlike Diaz, 2019 was the best year of Lugo’s career by far. He was top 10% of the league in strikeout rate. His curveball’s spin rate is one of the best in the league.
Dellin Betances
Dellin Betances was a major pickup for the Mets rotation. From 2014-2018, he was dominant, with his strikeout rate in the top 1% of the league. In the beginning of 2019, he faced shoulder injuries and was out until September, when he was injured again after partially tearing his Achilles tendon. Hopefully he will be able to stay healthy this season and pick up where he left off in 2018.
Justin Wilson
Justin Wilson joined the Mets last year. Wilson made adjustments in 2019 that paid off. Specifically, he made adjustments to his cutter, adding movement to the already sweeping pitch. He also increased the use of his cutter from approximately 15% in 2018 to nearly 40% in 2019. These changes caused the batting average against Wilson’s cutter to reduce from .372 in 2018 to .200 in 2019. If he can continue on this pattern and further improve his arsenal, he will remain effective this season. However, an interesting find was that his 3.91 FIP (field independent pitching) was more than 1 run greater than his 2.54 ERA in 2019. This implies that he may have gotten a little lucky throughout last season.
Jeurys Familia
Familia had a rough 2019, with a 5.70 ERA (4.88 FIP) and 6.3 walks per 9 innings (bottom 2% in the league in walk rate). He has not has a season with an ERA below 3 since 2015. On a positive note, Familia has been working on his splitter this spring and according to new Mets manager Luis Rojas, “He’s got weapons. It’s been a good spring for him so far.” (Quote Courtesy of the New York Post). So, we will see if the work on his splitter pays off for him this year.
Brad Brach
Brach split his time in 2019 between the Cubs and the Mets. The change in teams also brought his ERA in 2019 down from 6.13 to 3.68. This is due in part to Brach tipping his changeup while in Chicago. The Mets’ staff helped Brach make the necessary adjustments and the results speak for themselves. Brach has also been working on using his cutter more frequently, which has helped him be more aggressive in the zone. These adjustments should help Brach be consistent this season.
Robert Gsellman
Gsellman pitched 52 games last year before getting injured in August. During these games, he had a 4.66 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He is now healthy and ready to pitch again. Before the Mets signed Porcello and Wacha, there was a chance that Gsellman would have been a starter again (he was a starter in 2017). But, it now seems like he will be used as a reliever, and can handle multiple inning appearances if needed. I believe he has potential to improve as a reliever this season because he had a strong end to the 2019 season. He also has been increasing the use of his slider and bumped up his fastball velocity. In 2019, he also had the highest strikeout rate of his career, at 8.48 strikeouts per 9 innings.
So how do the Mets pitchers look this season?
Well, the starting rotation looks amazing (as expected) and the bullpen definitely got some upgrades. Multiple relievers are working on making the necessary changes for success. If they are able to stay healthy and consistent, they are set to be a huge improvement from last year. The Mets’ pitching staff will be tough for opposing hitters to break through.