Luis Gil has been a pleasant addition to the Yankees starting rotation during the second half of this season. In five games so far, he has a 2.88 ERA/3.97 FIP and a 30% strikeout rate. In this article, we’ll do a deep dive into how Gil has been doing so far, and what to expect from him next season.
What Does Luis Gil Throw?
Gil has two primary pitches, a fourseam fastball and a slider. He also mixes in a change-up. Since Gil has only pitched in five games, we are looking at a small sample when talking about how he’s done so far. Instead of focusing on the results, let’s start by understanding his arsenal.
Fourseam Fastball: Plus Velocity and Movement
His fastball gets plus rise and as a result, he throws it to the top of the zone to generate more swing and miss. It also has plus velocity and averages 96 mph, though Gil is capable of hitting triple digits.
Slider: Tight Break
Gil throws a 85 mph slider. While it does get plus glove side break, it is not quite a frisbee slider. It gets tighter break, but moves enough to run away from right handed hitters and generate chase.
He uses it on the outer, lower third of the zone versus right handed hitters so it breaks off the plate, and inner, lower third of the zone to left handed hitters so it breaks inside.
Change-up: Plus Velocity and Armside Run
While Gil is primarily a two pitch pitcher, he also throws a change-up, but significantly less than his fastball and slider. It’s a hard pitch, he throws it 93 mph to the outer, lower third of the zone versus left handed hitters. That’s only a 3 mph difference from his fastball, which can make it very deceptive due to its distinct movement. It is also a nice pitch to complement his 85 mph slider, and acts as middle ground velocity-wise between the fastball and the slider.
It gets really good armside run and is used primarily versus left handed hitters, as it runs away from them.
It is straighter in movement than a frisbee change-up, but gets late horizontal run. It is a highly efficient pitch, with 95% of the spin contributing to its movement.
Command Struggles
Luis Gil has a great arsenal, but has struggled with command issues at this major league level and in Triple A. His walk rate at both levels this season is 14%.
Misses to the heart of the plate have led to damage and hard hits. His hard hit rate is 41%, which is 6% higher than average. He’s done a great job so far at limiting home runs and barreled balls, but he needs to be cautious moving forward, especially when he starts going multiple times through the order. Since he only has two primary pitches, he may start to become predictable and more hittable the second and third time through.
Long Term Outlook
Luis Gil has a bright future ahead of him, but I believe his limited arsenal will hold him back from being any higher than a number 5 starter or a bulk innings reliever (one time through the order). Even though he’s done well so far, it’s important to remember that, with any young pitcher with quality stuff, hitters are seeing him for the first time, which may be a contributing reason to why his results have been so amazing so far.
If he can add in another pitch, or start throwing the change-up more frequently to make his pitch mix a little more unpredictable, I think his ceiling will be significantly higher.
What do you think Luis Gil’s potential is?