Last night, the Los Angeles Angels acquired RHP Lucas Giolito and RHP Reynaldo López from the Chicago White Sox for catching prospect Edgar Quero and left-handed pitching prospect Ky Bush.
This move took many by surprise, as the Angels are seven games back in the AL West and four games back in the Wild Card. It was unclear whether they were going to buy or sell this deadline. With the decision made to buy, they have an incredibly challenging uphill battle ahead of them if they want to secure the final Wild Card spot.
Despite their position in the standings, in a July 15th chat with my Patreon subscribers, I shared that I did not think the Angels would trade Shohei Ohtani or be sellers this deadline for the following reasons:
Will Ohtani be traded?
Context: Angels are 8 games back in their division and 6 games back in the Wild Card. Though it’s possible, there is a very steep road for them to make the playoffs given the teams that are currently ahead of them.
Ohtani is a free agent at the end of this season, so he would be a rental if traded.
My Thoughts: I do not think Ohtani will be traded this deadline for two reasons:
– I’m not sold the Angels’ owner actually wants to trade Ohtani
– I believe the front office is likely under an enormous amount of pressure to make the playoffs this season. No team in the majors has a longer playoff drought. Angels’ GM Perry Minasian was hired in November 2020. His contract was for four years, but with two of the best players in baseball on the team, it feels like this season was the time for a playoff push.
– July 15th Post on Patreon.com/ScoutGirlReport
Here is a link to the full post and to subscribe: Scout Girl Report Patreon
This trade is a risky move by the Angels, and we will understand why as we look further into it.
If you prefer video breakdowns, check out this video:
Angels Receive: RHP Lucas Giolito and RHP Reynaldo López
Lucas Giolito, SP
Through 21 starts, Giolito has a 3.79 ERA with an above average 26% strikeout rate and an average 8% walk rate. His biggest struggle this season has been hard contact. His 42% hard hit rate is tied for a career-high. His 4.44 xERA is reflective of the type of contact Giolito has been giving up overall.
Giolito was one of the best available starters on the trade block this season and will likely slot into the rotation as the Angels’ number two – behind Ohtani.
Pitch Breakdown:
- Fourseam fastball: (92-95mph) with above average ride that gets slightly more chase than average (3% more).
- Slider: (82-85mph) with average depth and below average sweep. Used primarily against right-handed hitters, but occasionally mixed in to left-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, it gets slightly less chase than average, but gets more miss when thrown in-zone than average. The actual zone rate of the pitch is below average, but this is because Giolito is intentionally trying to get the pitch on the outer edge of the plate to get weak contact (graphic below is from Baseball Savant and is from the catcher’s perspective):
This strategy is working, as he gets 10% more ground balls off the slider than average.
- Changeup: (79-82mph) with average fade and below average depth. Used primarily against left-handed hitters. Compared to 2022, Giolito has been throwing the changeup in-zone more. The pitch gets 5% more miss when thrown in-zone against lefties compared to average.
Reynaldo López, RP
Reynaldo López historically has above average control, but has a worse than average 12% walk rate this season. His strikeout rate, however, is 86th percentile at 29%.
He throws a 98-100mph fourseam that gets slightly more ride than average. It generates 5% more chase and 5% more in-zone miss than average.
His 87-90mph slider has average sweep and below average depth, and generates average chase. This season, it is getting hit in zone way more frequently than in years past (~11% more frequently). This season’s .408 xSLG on the pitch is much worse than last season’s .240 xSLG.
He will slot into the top of the Angels’ pen with Carlos Estévez and be used as a high leverage arm.
White Sox Receive: C Edgar Quero and LHP Ky Bush
Quero and Bush were the top two Angels’ prospects (not counting Logon O’Hoppe, who is in the Majors now).
Quero signed with the Angels’ for $200K in 2021 and is a switch-hitting catcher in Double A. He is hitting .246/.386/.332 (.718 OPS) through 70 games. His 17% strikeout rate may indicate he has slightly better bat to ball skills than average and his 17% walk rate is impressive. Given his consistently high walk rates in the Minor Leagues, Quero seems to have a good feel for the zone.
Bush was the Angels’ second round pick in 2021 and is a left-handed pitcher in Double A. He has been used as a starter so far. He doesn’t have a very large sample size, but in 26 innings this season he has a 30% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate. Keep in mind that this may be a bit misleading because it’s only been 26 innings and because Bush went through a lat injury. In high A last season (103 innings), Bush had a 24% K rate and 7% walk rate. MLB Pipeline has his slider graded to be above average.
What this Means for the Angels
The Angels traded away their top two prospects and do not have much left in their farm. FanGraphs gave the Angels’ new top prospect (outside of Logan O’Hoppe) a below average future grade of 45. The organization as a hole ranks 30th on FanGraphs’ farm system rankings.
What this means is that if things don’t work out for the Angels this year, they are not going to be left with much to work with next season. They do not have many players on their active roster that can get a top prospect return if they decide to rebuild, and they do not have any prospects that can get significant Major League talent.
They traded away their only prospect that had an average future value (Edgar Quero), got two rentals in return, and still have incredibly low playoff odds (only 17% per FanGraphs).
I understand the urgency to compete given Ohtani’s impending free agency, but I stand by my opinion that the Angels should have traded him (and potentially Trout) to start building a new core.
What do you think of this deal?
Great video Andrea. I agree that this is a little surprising, but when you really think about it, it makes perfect sense for two people, the Angels GM and Arte Moreno. Arte Moreno has been known in the past for trying to make a big splash (see Pujols, Trout, and Rendon contracts). I think this was his way of saying that the Angels are contenders not just for the playoffs this year, but also in the sweepstakes to sign Ohtani.
Oddly, as I sure you recall, Lopez and Giolito were previously traded together. They were traded with Dane Dunning to the White Sox for Adam Eaton. I think we know who won that trade, although the Nationals won a world series a few years later. The White Sox traded Eaton, if I recall, only a day after they traded Chris Sale to the Red Sox for a group of players including Yoan Moncado and Michael Kopech. If I recall correctly, when these trades were made, the White Sox were still arguably in the playoff race, but they decided to take a chance on their future.
As to the Angels GM, he is fighting for his job as you so accurately note. If he gets fired, I am guessing he does not care about the condition of the farm system left behind.
I think this may be the first sign that Ohtani may be staying put long term. I really think Ohtani is very comfortable in Anaheim. Anaheim/Orange County is unlike any other baseball city in my opinion. It sits in the shadow of LA, like really in the shadow of LA. Like the Dodgers are on page of the sports page, and the Angels are on page 4, in the middle, next to high school soccer scores.
For Ohtani, no one really bothers him in the OC, and it is easy to blend in there, driving around in his Tesla. I think he likes that. He appears to work very hard to stay out of the limelight. He keeps his personal life out of the news for the most part. Even with his complete game yesterday, he told Phil Nevin “I want to finish it.” I don’t think Nevin even responded. Ontani does what he wants in Anaheim. He plays baseball on his terms. Ohtani originally picked Anaheim for a reason. No in Anaheim gives him a hard time. No one is asking him questions like “do you think it would help the team if you just focused on pitching for the rest of the year?”
The guy appears to be hauling in about $70 million annually from Oakley, New Balance, Hugo Boss, Porsche, etc. It is not like he is going to leave to the Yankees and/or Dodgers for more money. The Angeles and Moreno have the money. Moreno is the richest resident of Arizona at a cool 4.8 billion. He is 77 years old, and he bought the Angels for $184 million after selling the sign company he founded for over $8 billion. The Angels were recently valued at $2.3 billion. Moreno is playing with monopoly money. Ultimately, keeping Ohtani, even it costs him $500 million over 10 years, is going to make him money. Moreno wins no matter what, and as such, he is going to open up the checkbook. If Ohtani will stay in Anaheim, I don’t think there is an amount he won’t agree to. Instead, Moreno is focused on one thing at this point — his legacy. He wants to win a World Series championship for the Angels. Given his track record I would not bet against him.
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