Looking into the Rays’ Outfield Ability and Setup

The Rays traded one of their best relievers, Emilio Pagan, for Padres’ defensive gem outfielder, Manuel Margot, and prospect, Logan Driscoll. A lot of Rays fans couldn’t help but notice that the Rays now have a lot of outfielders. In a statement by Rays’ GM Erik Neander (reported by Juan Toribio of MLB.com), he implies that the mix of outfielders allows for better matchups and lineup flexibility.

“Looking at our outfield mix, we want to be deep, we want to be flexible and we want to have a lot of options,” Neander said. “Really strong mix of lefties and righties and guys that bring different skill sets to the party. It will probably require some egos to be checked and a team-first mentality but our guys have that. … We feel really good about where we stand right now.”

Reported by Juan Toribio, MLB.com

While Neander also mentioned that Kiermaier will remain the primary center fielder, we can expect to see the Rays platoon their outfielders to encourage higher offensive production. Let’s take a look at offensive splits for all of the Rays’ outfielders, and how they might set up the outfield:

Randy Arozarena (Minor League Splits)

Kevin Kiermaier

Manuel Margot

Jose Martinez

Austin Meadows

Brian O’Grady (Minor League Splits)

Hunter Renfroe

*Red indicates a lefty batter

Based on the splits, it’s clear that the Rays have several hitters who will perform well against left handed pitchers. This will give Kevin Cash (field manager) the opportunity to setup the outfield in a number of different ways throughout the season.

Versus right handed pitching, I would expect to see Kiermaier and Meadows get the majority of playing time. The others can rotate through left field and be used as backups or for Kiermaier’s or Meadows’ days off.  I would expect to see Martinez be used more often as a DH instead of in the outfield, as others are stronger defensively.

Even though there are a lot of options for outfielders, Kiermaier has been placed on the injured list the past four seasons, making the case for adding more outfielders a little stronger. Here is his injury history for the past few seasons:

• 2016: Fractured Left Hand
• 2017: Right Hip Fracture
• 2018: Torn Ligament in Right Thumb
• 2019: Left Thumb Sprain

Hopefully he will stay healthy this year, but it’s nice to have other capable defensive players just in case.

The Rays’ outfielders are very strong defensively. Here are some of their highlights (as of 2019):

Outs Above Average (a stat calculated based on catch probability):

• Kiermaier: Ranked 2^nd in MLB
• Margot: Ranked 7^th in MLB
• Renfroe: Top 10% in MLB

Having players with high outs above average means that they are more likely to catch balls hit to harder spots. This will minimize runners on base and make the game a little more exciting (who doesn’t love a great catch?)

Fastest Sprint Speed:

• Kiermaier: Top 7% in MLB
• Arozarena: Top 4% in MLB
• Margot: Top 3% in MLB

They can get to more balls in the outfield and can hopefully steal some bases (Margot stole 20 in 2019).

Outfielder Jump (a stat based on fastest reaction time and best route to a ball):

• Kiermaier: 100^th percentile (one of best in the league)
• Margot: Top 5% in MLB

Defensive Runs Saved (basically how many runs the player saved his team):

• Kiermaier: 13
• Renfroe: 7
• Margot: 6

These numbers for defensive runs saved are good and demonstrate the potential these players to have a major defensive impact. The higher the better on this stat, you’d be surprised how many players have negative defensive runs saved (Meadows did in 2018!)

The Rays have set themselves up to have a great outfield with offensive power (especially against lefties), versatility, and elite defensive ability. I think the Rays have a great chance to prove themselves this year, and hopefully get further into the playoffs. Excited to see how all these new additions pan out.