The Royals are last place in the AL Central and 21 games back in the Wild Card with a 22-57 record. Since they are in the process of a rebuild, it’s safe to say they are looking to get some more young and controllable players this deadline that can make an impact when they are ready to compete. So who do they have available to trade this deadline?
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Incoming Free Agents
First, we’ll start out by looking at Royals’ players who would be rentals on a contending team, as they will be free agents at the end of the season.
Aroldis Chapman, RP
Given the high demand for relief pitchers and how well Chapman’s been doing this season, I expect him to be moved at the deadline. In 28.1 IP in relief, Chapman has a 2.54 ERA and is in the top 1% of the league with an elite 43% strikeout rate. The catch? Chapman’s control continues to be a mess, with a poor 17% walk rate.
Chapman features a two-pitch arsenal: fourseam and slider. The fourseam is thrown hard 98-101mph and has above average ride. The slider is also hard at 86-90mph and gets above average sweep. Overall, he’s done a great job of limiting hard contact and missing bats with an elite 60% zone contact rate.
What is Chapman’s trade value?
Chapman is a rental, but he is also among the better available relievers this deadline. We can look at a similar trade from 2021 to see what Chapman’s value might be:
CHC Craig Kimbrel for CWS INF Nick Madrigal and RP Codi Heuer
At the time, Kimbrel was also a rental. In return, the Cubs got two Major League players who were early on in their careers (around 1 year of service). Chapman may get a similar return in terms of overall value. For example, I could see an opposing team giving up a prospect who is expected to have Major League value and a Major League player with 2-3 years under his belt as well.
Brad Keller, SP
Brad Keller is on the 15-day IL and was expected to start a rehab assignment on June 28th. He is recovering from right shoulder impingement syndrome, per MLB.com, and is expected to return mid-July. Prior to his injury, he was not doing very well. He has a 4.36 ERA and 20% walk rate through 43 IP. This performance was due, in part, to a velocity dip and shoulder soreness.
However, Keller has never performed as a top starter. But, he has done a good job of getting ground balls. His 57% ground ball rate is a career high for Keller.
He changed his pitch mix a bit this season:
- He started throwing a curveball 19% of the time.
- He dropped the usage of his sinker from 23% to 11%.
- He stopped throwing his slider to left-handed hitters in favor of the curveball.
His “fourseam” is his primary pitch against left-handed hitters and generates a ground ball rate of 58% against both hands. When I first saw this classification on Baseball Savant, I thought the pitch was a mislabeled sinker. However, based on some photos it seems like Keller is using a fourseam grip.
Keller also added 6” of sweep to his slider this season, which is Keller’s primary pitch against right-handed hitters. The movement increase may have been helped by the 2-mph dip in velocity. Compared to 2022, the slider is resulting in significantly less damage (.437 xSLG vs .319 xSLG).
What is Keller’s Trade Value?
Because of his performance and his potential injury concerns, I don’t expect a large return for trading Keller. In this similar trade from 2020, Mike Minor was performing a bit worse than Keller in terms of ERA (5.48 ERA), but was fully healthy through the trade deadline and had an average MLB walk rate:
TEX SP Mike Minor and cash for two OAK PTBNL
The biggest obstacle facing Keller’s potential trade is whether he is an upgrade in the rotation or bullpen for a contending team. Because there are so many teams who might go for it this season, high-end pitchers will be tough to come by. So, depending on how Keller looks during his rehab starts and his return, it might be worth taking a chance on him.
Amir Garrett, RP
Amir Garrett is on the 15-day IL with left elbow valgus extension, per MLB.com, and started his rehab assignment on 6/22. He is expected to return mid-July.
Prior to his injury, Garrett had a career best 3.00 ERA. But just like Chapman and Keller, Garrett also has an incredibly high walk rate (18%). The 3.00 ERA is also a bit misleading, as his xERA (based on his quality of contact) is 4.72, and he has a hard-hit rate against of 46% (10% worse than MLB average).
He has three pitchers: slider, sinker, and fourseam. The fourseam is mixed in primarily against left-handed batters.
What is Garrett’s Trade Value?
We can compare Amir Garrett to the following trade to get an idea of the return:
ARI RP Joakim Soria for two TOR PTBNL (2021)
Joakim Soria was also a rental at the time of this trade. Prior to the trade, Soria spent about a month on the injured list with the Diamondbacks and had a 4.30 ERA, which is similar to Garrett’s 4.72 xERA. However, Soria had a much better walk rate (8%).
Zack Greinke, SP
While Zack Greinke is a free agent at the end of this season, he has a full no trade clause and is having a down year (5.31 ERA). Greinke has a history of being very picky about where he wants to play, and it is highly unlikely he waives the full no trade clause for a large or even middle market team.
Non-Rental Player Who Makes an Interesting Target
Scott Barlow, RP
Finally, a pitcher with a more reasonable walk rate! Through 28.2 IP, Scott Barlow has a 4.39 ERA and walk rate of 12%. That walk rate is still worse than MLB average, but Barlow has consistently average control throughout his career.
That ERA is also not representative how well Barlow has been limiting hard contact. His 3.35 xERA is over a run better than his actual ERA. He also has an elite 27% hard hit rate against and 33% strikeout rate. Both of those stats put Barlow in the top 3% and 6% of the league, respectively.
Barlow throws three pitchers: slider, curveball, and fourseam. He mixes all three to each hand but uses his curveball significantly more against left-handed hitters and his slider significantly more against right-handed hitters. He’s relied on chase for a lot of his success, as his stuff gets an average amount of contact when thrown in zone, but he gets much more chase than average.
What is Barlow’s trade value?
Scott Barlow has 2.5 years remaining under team control, which will make him harder to get than the players discussed earlier in the article since the Royals don’t need to trade him this deadline. That being said, with so much control remaining, the Royals would likely get a good return on Barlow.
Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a good trade to base Barlow’s value on because relievers with that amount of control remaining were either not traded or were packaged with other players. But I think we can take an educated guess based on a couple of other trades:
- WAS RP Brad Hand for TOR C Riley Adams (2021) – Rental for Prospect
Brad Hand was a rental at the time, meaning Barlow has two extra years under team control than Hand did when he was traded. Hand had a 3.59 ERA with Washington that season, which is similar to Barlow’s 3.35 xERA. The return, Riley Adams, was the 17th best prospect in the Blue Jays’ system, per MLB Pipeline.
Since Hand was a rental, we can use this as a baseline to assume the Royals could get more for Barlow.
- BAL RP Miguel Castro for NYM SP Kevin Smith and a PTBNL (2020) – 3+ yrs. Remaining for Prospects
Miguel Castro had about 3.5 years of team control remaining when this trade was made, meaning he had one more year than Barlow does now. Castro had a 4.02 ERA with Baltimore and a walk rate that was similar to Barlow’s at 14%. The return, Kevin Smith, was the 12th best prospect in the Mets’ system, per MLB Pipeline. Plus, the Mets also sent a player to be named later.
In this trade the Orioles received an additional player to the Hand trade and a higher ranked prospect, both of which accounted for the extra years Castro had under team control.
Based on these trades, I think we can get a general sense for what the Royals could get for Barlow if they traded him this season (10-20 prospect from an organization with a good farm system + lottery ticket). But because Barlow has 2.5 years remaining until free agency, the Royals have the flexibility to shop him around and ultimately keep him if they don’t like an offer.
What do you think the Royals will do this deadline?