Jeffrey Springs Extension Breakdown

The Tampa Bay Rays signed LHP Jeffrey Springs to a 4-yr $31 million extension. Springs, who is slated to be the Rays number 5 starter this season, was designated for assignment from the Boston Red Sox roster before being traded to the Rays in 2021.

In this post, we will walk through what makes Springs an extension-worthy pitcher, and what benefits it provides to the Rays.

If you prefer video breakdowns, check out the video below:

Springs throws three pitches:

• Fourseam
• Changeup
• Slider

He possesses above average control, with a 5.6% walk rate in 2022.

Springs vs Right-Handed Hitters

Springs stands on the extreme third base side of the rubber and has a crossfire delivery, which makes it more challenging for right-handed hitters to hit the pitch cleanly.

When facing right-handed hitters, Springs uses his changeup as his primary pitch (44% of the time), followed closely by his fourseam (38%). He also mixes in his slider about 18% of the time.

His changeup has an average movement profile, but he throws it low/outer third and gets incredible results.  

He uses his fourseam middle and up to right-handed hitters. While the velocity may be on the slower side (91mph), Springs gets more extension than average. The above average extension in addition to the pitch being elevated allows for the velocity to play up.

The fourseam gets more ride and run than average. While it gets an average amount of chase, it gets 15% more swing and miss on those out of zone pitches.

When Springs mixes in his slider to right-handed hitters, he throws it lower, middle/in. Even though it is thrown slightly harder than average (85mph), it is his weakest offering vs right-handed hitters. He gets close to average in-zone miss, below average chase, and a below average xwOBA against.  

Springs vs Left-Handed Hitters

Despite the changeup being his best pitch, Springs only throws his slider and fourseam vs left-handed hitters.

He uses his slider lower/outer third to left-handed hitters. It gets an average amount of chase, but significantly more contact (24% more) on those pitches than average. The good news is that his slider gets slightly better batted ball results than average in terms of ground balls and xwOBA.

He does not elevate his fourseam as much when facing left-handed hitters, and if often ends up in the heart of the zone. The results are slightly below average, mostly due to the hard contact off that pitch.

Overall, Springs is a stronger pitcher when facing right-handed hitters.

Thoughts on the Jeffrey Springs Extension

Overall, I view Springs as a back of the rotation arm who is better suited to face right-handed hitters. That being said, I think the extension was a strategic move for the Rays for the following reasons:

Reason 1: The Rising Cost of Starting Pitchers

Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen are under team control for five and four more seasons, respectively. They have not qualified for arbitration yet, but based on their success so far I would expect them to become quite costly by the time they reach their second and third years of eligibility, especially McClanahan.

With Jeffrey Springs have a breakout year in 2022, the Rays were able to take advantage of his success and leverage him to sign what may turn out to be a team-friendly deal if his success ends up being sustainable. With noticeable changes to his pitch mix in 2022 (less slider, more changeups, etc.), I think this is a safe bet.

Reason 2: Possible Loss of Tyler Glasnow

Tyler Glasnow has two more seasons under contract, but if the Rays plan to repeat their cycle of trading a top starting pitcher, there is a high chance they look to trade him next offseason or the at the trade deadline in 2024.

While that still leaves the Rays with McClanahan, Rasmussen, and Zach Eflin, this is a team that relies so heavily on their pitching for success. By locking up Springs now, they are able to secure an above average rotation for the foreseeable future.

What did you think of the Springs extension?