LHP Ryan Weathers is getting a lot of hype this Spring, as he’s been doing well in his first few starts with the Yankees. His strikeout rate has been strong, and there has been talk about improvements to his pitches, including increased velocity and adjustments to his pitch mix.
But how much of his success is real? And how much is the result of a small Spring Training sample?
What did Weathers Change?
- Velocity
There is a jump in his velocity. Looking at his average 2025 velocity compared to his most recent Spring start, his stuff is up 1-2mph:
While this is certainly a meaningful improvement, velocity alone will not guarantee increased success.
- Pitch Mix Adjustments
The more notable changes are those in his pitch mix vs both hands, but particularly against lefties.
RHH Approach
Vs righties, Weathers is mixing in his sweeper more while reducing the usage of his fourseam and changeup.
LHH Approach
The bigger adjustment is vs lefties, Weathers made two major adjustments:
- Significant increased use of his sweeper.
- Replaced his fourseam with his sinker as his primary fastball.
This is a big deal because instead of throwing an elevated fourseam vs lefties for miss, he is now throwing a sinker low and in paired with a sweeper low and away.
While these both occurred in an extremely small sample (9.1 IP), they allude to a change in pitcher profile. Historically, Weathers has below average strikeout rates and gets outs mostly via flyballs. Now, it seems like the Yankees are trying to get Weathers to generate more ground balls vs both hands.
Will these changes make a meaningful difference?
In his small Spring sample, two positive results have shown up: Weathers has gotten more chase and more ground balls. Both of these results make sense given his more sinker and sweeper oriented approach. However, it is unclear whether these changes will lead to a significant improvement over the course of an entire season.
In my opinion, there is not enough to conclude that Weathers is going to have a breakout year. The changes he made affect his profile and plan of attack. They are not meaningful changes to his actual pitches in terms of shape.
While his fastballs are harder than average, they historically don’t generate whiff. His changeup has above average depth, but often results in hard contact vs both hands. His sweeper gets whiff, but has below average movement.
As a result, the likely impact of the changes is not a sudden ability to overpower hitters and get strikeouts. Instead, it could lead to a change in the type of contact he generates.
Instead of maintaining his flyball approach, Weathers will likely shift to become a more ground ball oriented starter.
Therefore, while I think these are interesting changes that will benefit Weathers in terms of forcing hitters to adjust to his new plan of attack, I don’t think they are enough for him to become a “breakout” pitcher this season.