In his first full season with the Miami Marlins, LHP Trevor Rogers was an All-Star. His second season, 2022, did not quite go as smoothly. After a rocky start posting a 5.85 ERA through July, Rogers was placed on the injured list with back spasms. He returned in late-August and had a short stint of success, but strained his left lat in mid-September and was out for the remainder of the season.
This past off-season Rogers worked on mechanical adjustments and added a sinker to his repertoire. Let’s look at how adding the sinker may enhance his arsenal this season.
Trevor Rogers’ 2022 Arsenal
Let’s start by looking at Rogers’ arsenal in 2022. Rogers threw three pitches:
- Fourseam (95-mph)
- Change-up (86-mph)
- Slider (81-mph)
Rogers mixed his pitches similarly to both hands, but used the slider slightly more and the fourseam slightly less against left-handed hitters.
In terms of location, Rogers threw each pitch to approximately the same area of the plate. He threw the fourseam middle and up to both hands and the change-up low. He threw the slider low and away to left handed hitters and low and in to right-handed hitters.
Rogers’ arsenal works better versus hitters of the same hand (left-handed hitters). This can be demonstrated by looking at the results of each pitch versus each hand:
In the table above, we can see that the pitch results when facing left-handed hitters are better than the pitch results when facing right-handed hitters for every pitch.
How will Adding a Sinker Change Rogers’ Pitch Usage?
Rogers used a sinker in 2020, but very rarely. Since it is something he was working on this off-season, I would expect him to lean a little more heavily on it this year.
Sinkers are typically thrown to the same hand. An exception to this is if the sinker is an elite pitch, in which case it can be effectively thrown to both hands. In Rogers’ case, my expectations are lower, given this is a new offering. Therefore, I would expect Rogers to predominantly use the pitch against batters of the same hand, left-handed batters.
When thinking about what pitch he will reduce to left-handed batters as a result, my first instinct was the change-up. But after watching some video, I’m not sure that “change-up” is the right term for that pitch. It looks more like a slider to me:
As we saw earlier, Rogers throws another slider, but these two pitches are very similar in velocity and movement. And if we look at the heat maps again, we can see that he also uses them very similarly against both right and left-handed batters
I originally assumed that he’ll reduce the usage of this “change-up” to left-handed hitters because generally speaking, unless a change-up is a plus pitch it will perform much better against the opposite hand. However, this is not the case for Rogers (and I would not consider this “change-up” to be a plus pitch).
I would expect to see a split like that from a slider (sweepy sliders often work better vs the same hand since they move away from the hitter off the plate).
Regardless, I still think that the sinker will be primarily to left-handed hitters because it will run in on them. I’m assuming Rogers’ sinker will get above average run because his low arm slot will help provide horizontal movement.
In terms of what I think Rogers will reduce the usage of vs left-handed hitters, I am leaning fourseam. The fourseam gets above average run, but below average ride. In Rogers’ case, I think the depth of a sinker would better pair with a slider/change-up than the ride of a fourseam. He’ll ideally throw the sinker low to tunnel with the slider/change.
How do you think bringing the sinker back will help Rogers?