Head to Head: Juan Soto vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.

Two young stars battling in the NL East: the Nationals’ Juan Soto vs. the Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr. Both talented and fun players, but who is better?

Offensive Skill: Soto vs. Acuña Jr.

Let’s start by comparing some basic offensive stats between the two hitters.

Looking at the table, their career batting averages and slugging are very similar. They also both hit the ball really hard, with around the same hard hit %. A ball that is “hard hit” has an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater.

One notable difference is that Soto gets on base more than Acuña Jr. His walk rate contributes to his OBP being so much higher than Acuña Jr.’s. Soto is tied for 5^th in the majors for the most walks in 2019, with 108 walks.

Even though Soto gets on base more, Acuña Jr. is more aggressive on the base paths. He stole significantly more bases last season. Acuña Jr. stole 37 bases in 2019 (ranked 4^th in the majors for stolen bases).

Another notable difference between the two is that Acuña Jr.’s strikeout rate is 25.9%, which means he strikes out about 1 every 4 at-bats. League average is 20%, and power hitters are more likely to have strikeout rates on the higher side. That being said, Ronald Acuña Jr. had the second most strikeouts in the majors in 2019 with 188 strikeouts.

Winner: Juan Soto

Defensive Skill: Soto vs. Acuña Jr.

We know that Soto and Acuña Jr. are both two fun players to watch in the field. They definitely each have some highlight reel worthy catches. Let’s take a look at their defensive abilities.

Outs Above Average

Acuña Jr. is faster than Soto, but Soto has better outs above average (OAA). This means he is reaching more balls than an average outfielder, and more than Acuña Jr. However, Acuña Jr. spent a lot of time playing centerfield, so there are other factors to consider when looking at the numbers for outs above average.

Some members of the game believe that centerfield is actually easier to play than the corner outfield positions because the player is viewing a ball in play head on, allowing him to anticipate where it will land more easily.

When asked about the theory that centerfield is easier than a corner outfield position, former Mets manager Terry Collins had the following to say:

“You get a better view out there, helps with your jumps and reads on balls off the bat,” he said. “It is easier to see what is coming.”

Courtesy of Doug Glanville, ESPN MLB Analyst

If you buy into this theory, Acuña Jr. should have slightly better numbers for outs above average. However, looking more into the details of outs above average separated by zone, we see a different story.

Just a note on this table (Data from Baseball Savant). Zero is the league-wide average for OAA in each zone. Anything above 0 is above average, and anything below is below average. The “zone” describes the general direction relative to the player that the ball landed.

We see that Soto is above average when making plays in front of him, to his left and behind him. Acuña Jr. is above average when making plays in front of him, but below average when making plays to his right. If we believe that Acuña Jr. had an advantage over Soto because he played centerfield, it seems like it did not help. Soto is still making plays at a higher rate than Acuña Jr.

Outfielder Jump and Arm

In terms of outfielder jump, we see Acuña Jr. actually has Soto beat. Jump is split up into three components: Reaction, Burst (Acceleration), and Route. Soto has much better reaction than Acuña Jr., but Acuña Jr. has better acceleration and more efficient routes to the ball.

When comparing outfield arm, Acuña Jr. comes out on top again. Acuña Jr.’s arm is above average, while Juan Soto’s is below average for outfielders. This position is backed by Fangraphs calculations for arm ability in relation to average.  Acuña Jr.’s arm is at 3, while Soto’s is at -3.2 for 2019.

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Ultimate Zone Rating

If we separate by position (both players as a left fielder) by looking at Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), we see that Acuña Jr. has an advantage. That being said, UZR usually takes about three season before it represents a true value for a player. In addition, league average UZR is 0, so Acuña Jr. and Soto both have below average values for UZR so far in their careers.

Winner: Ronald Acuña Jr.

Even though Acuña Jr. won this battle, I was surprised to not see better defensive stats for Acuña Jr.. He has great physical make-up and has natural talent. I think if he makes a few adjustments he can perform better defensively than he has so far.

And the winner is….

Ronald Acuña Jr.!

When looking at the battle of Soto vs. Acuña Jr., Acuña comes out on top. That by no means implies that Juan Soto is anything less than an incredibly gifted and exciting player. I chose Acuña Jr. because I feel that he is better defensively (and has more potential to improve defensively) and a comparable offensive player.

There are great things coming to both of these young stars in the coming years. And I am very excited to watch!

Do you agree? Let me know in the comments below!