Head to Head: Cole vs deGrom

Last week, MLB released power rankings for the top 100 players in baseball, and a lot of people (especially Mets fans) were surprised to see Gerrit Cole rank higher than Jacob deGrom. So in this first head to head article, let’s compare these two phenomenal pitchers and see which one is better.

Pitches and Movement

Both Cole and deGrom throw a four seamer, slider, changeup, sinker (aka two seam fastball), and curveball, and use them in similar ways. They both use their four seamer about 45-50% of the time and their sliders roughly 20% of the time. After these two pitches, Cole relies more on his curveball while deGrom relies more on his changeup.

Who throws harder?

Cole and deGrom have very similar average velocity for each of their pitches, but Cole seems to be throwing slightly harder than deGrom on average for the majority of his pitches.

For the four seam fastball, Cole ranks in the top 3% of the league, and deGrom ranks in the top 5% of the league.

Spin Rate

In terms of the spin rate, they have similar movement on their curveball with deGrom’s having slightly more spin than Cole’s. But in terms of the four seam fastball, Cole’s has significantly more spin than deGrom’s.

ERA

When looking at ERA of both of the pitchers, deGrom on average had a lower ERA year to year. I thought it might be a good idea to compare the ERAs by season, but also by age since deGrom is three years older than Cole. Cole started in the majors when he was 22 (played one more season than deGrom), and deGrom started when he was 26.

When comparing by season, deGrom has a lower ERA every year. In 2018, deGrom led all of MLB in ERA. In 2019, Cole led the AL in ERA.

When comparing by age, Cole has a lower ERA once (28 years old) out of the three years (26-28) where their ages overlap.

Just want to note that ERA is not the best stat for comparing one pitcher to another because it does not consider the effect of defense or ballpark. A stat like FIP (fielding independent pitching) is considered by some to be more accurate because it measures three outcomes that are completely under the pitcher’s control (walks, strikeouts and home runs). Cole and deGrom’s FIPs were both very similar to their ERAs, so for simplicity I used ERA to make the comparison.

Career Basic Stat Comparison

When I was looking at their career stats I thought I was looking at the same player. Their numbers are so similar, and so incredible.

• WHIP: walks and hits per innings pitched. The lower the better. The number represents on average how many walks and hits the pitcher gives up during one inning.
• Strikeouts/9: How many strikeouts a pitcher gets on average during 9 innings pitched.
• Walks/9: How many walks a pitcher gives up on average during 9 innings pitched.
• Home Runs/9: How many home runs a pitcher gives up on average during 9 innings pitched.

Pitch Outcome

For pitch outcome, I considered how often a pitch resulted in a strike. The higher the percentage and bar on the graph the better, because that means that that pitch ended up as a strike more frequently. For example, deGrom’s four seam fastball ended up as a strike 32% of the time, while Cole’s ended up as a strike 30% of the time.

Very close results of whose pitches get the most strikes. Cole’s curveball and slider result in more strikes than deGrom’s, but deGrom’s four seam, changeup and sinker result in more strikes than Cole’s.

Awards

Here is where deGrom has really shined, winning the NL CY Young award two years in a row (2018, 2019), Rookie of the Year (2014), and being a three time All-Star (2015, 2018, 2019).

Cole is also a three time All-Star, the same years as deGrom (2015, 2018, 2019).

Decision Time

This was a really tough comparison, Cole and deGrom have similar numbers and are both incredible pitchers.

I believe that Gerrit Cole is the better pitcher because:

• Cole throws harder than deGrom on average
• He has higher spin rate on his four seamer and comparable spin rate on his curveball
• Comparing ERA by age shows they are about even
• Cole’s pitches result in strikes more often than deGrom’s

Cole and deGrom’s statistics are so close (and they are both amazing!), it was really tough to make this final decision.

Who do you think is a better pitcher?

If you have a suggestion for two players I should compare next, let me know!