Yankees top prospect Anthony Volpe is off to a slow start in his first Major League season after quickly being promoted to the Majors after an incredible Spring Training. Is there any reason to be concerned?
If you prefer video breakdowns, check out this video:
Let’s start off by looking at what Volpe did so well in the Minor Leagues to earn himself a spot on the Major League roster so quickly.
Power and Contact Quality
Starting with his contact quality, Volpe showed some power in the Minor Leagues. He is not going to be a major powerhouse, but he can hit the ball hard and well consistently.
Starting with his home runs – Volpe hit 15 in High A and 18 in Double A. He also put up a consistently high ISO (Isolated power – SLG-AVG):
At least he did until he reached Triple A. While he only played in 22 games at the Triple A level, his ISO dropped to .169. At the Major League level so far, his ISO is .120, which is below average.
One promising sign is that his hard-hit rate is only 2% worse than average. But keep in mind that we are talking about very small samples for Triple A and the Majors.
Plate Discipline
Typically when we see prospects rise up the ranks quickly, it is because they have very good plate discipline skills. That rings true for Volpe, who put up above average walk rates in the Minor Leagues, and currently has a 17% walk rate at the Major League level. This is unique and impressive. I don’t have an exact number, but I would guess very few rookies have done the same.
Bat to Ball Skills
Volpe also made contact consistently in the Minor Leagues. Volpe has historically shown slightly above average bat to ball skills, but his strikeout rate shot up in his short stint in Triple A.
In the Majors so far, he has a strikeout rate of 28%.
Not Capitalizing on Pitches to the Heart
Volpe’s approach at the plate is on the patient side, but he also unfortunately has an above average tendency to swing and miss.
One graphic I found to reflect this was this one from Baseball Savant, which shows his run value against pitches thrown to each area in and around the zone. The middle, purple section is the most important because it represents the heart of the zone. So far, Volpe’s run value against these pitches is -5.
Compared to Major League average, Volpe is swinging at fewer pitches thrown to the heart of the plate and taking those pitches more. Ideally, we would see the exact opposite. We want a hitter to swing at pitches that end up to the heart of the plate.
The good news is he isn’t chasing that much, 4% less frequently than Major League average. This speaks to his above average plate discipline, which we discussed earlier. While he does have a more patient approach overall and swings in general less than average, Volpe has demonstrated through his Minor League success and his current walk rate that he is able to make good decisions at the plate.
The problem is this: Volpe is whiffing more than average and not capitalizing on pitches to the middle of the zone.
I don’t think this speaks negatively to Volpe’s offensive ability. Big league hitters don’t miss pitches middle unless they were looking for a different pitch type. I think that Volpe’s high whiff rate and failure to do damage on pitches to the heart speaks more to his approach, which may need to be adjusted. This should not be a heavy lift for Volpe, who has proven he has above average bat to ball skills.
Why is it Taking Volpe “So Long” to Adjust his Approach?
Before I answer this, I want to make it clear that I don’t think Volpe is doing poorly by any means, and will be absolutely fine if given more time.
One thing I did not mention above was how impressive Volpe’s results in the Minor Leagues were given his age. He’s reached the Major League level at only 22 years old after being promoted very quickly following a short stint in Triple A.
There is a big difference between lower level Minor League pitching and upper level Minor League pitching. At the lower levels of the Minors (through AA), pitchers often do not have the advanced breaking and secondary offerings that are so common in the Majors.
We start to see more refined pitches in Triple A, which is often a tough adjustment for a lot of young players. And then there is another major adjustment after being promoted to the Major Leagues. In my opinion, Volpe never had an opportunity to fully adjust to the Triple A level and therefore is still learning to refine his approach to maximize his skillset.
So what happens from here?
Volpe is a talented player with a bright future. But since he never had a chance to adjust to Triple A, he is going to need a longer period to adjust to the Major League level. I just want to reiterate, however, that Volpe has already shown signs of his ability to contribute, especially through his impressive walk rate. He also has proven skills in contact quality and bat to ball skills that are bound to get him going. It’s only a matter of time.
He’s already shown some progress at the Major League level. In the last seven games, he has a strikeout rate to 21%, walk rate of 21%, and he is hitting .304/.448/.478.
Overall, I don’t think there is a reason to be concerned about Volpe’s start. Due to the situation Volpe was put in, Volpe is in store for two major adjustments in a short period:
- Adjusting to the Majors
- Adjusting to quality secondary pitches
Once Volpe settles in and finds an approach that works well for him, he is going to be one of the most exciting and consistent young players to watch.