Cardinals’ Nolan Gorman is off to a hot start this spring, with a 1.156 OPS in 20 plate appearances, after making his Major League Debut in 2022.

Gorman was a top prospect for the Cardinals, and as a left-handed power bat there is a lot to be excited about. Let’s break down his hitting profile and then figure out his role this year.

If you prefer video breakdowns, check out this video:

Approach and Plate Discipline

Gorman showed a very aggressive approach last season, swinging at the first pitch 8% more frequently than average. Aggressiveness is not necessarily a bad thing, and so far it is not proving to be negative for Gorman. Despite the higher swing rate, Gorman only chased 3% more than average.

Gorman has consistently had below average walk rates, but he did a good job at the Major League level of bringing that walk rate up to slightly above average. In the future, I would except Gorman to post walk rates closer to those in his minor league career (6-7%). Its not typical for a player to have better plate discipline in the Majors without some sort of intentional change.

Biggest Strength: Power

Gorman is a power-first hitter, with a .194 ISO in 313 plate appearances at the Major League level last year. ISO is isolated power, which is just slugging percentage – batting average. MLB average ISO in 2022 was .152, which Gorman well exceeded.

He also posted a 6% higher hard hit rate than average.

With an average launch angle of 20 degrees, Gorman had a batted ball profile that suited his power well:

This batted ball profile is consistent with that of Gorman’s minor league career.

Biggest Area of Improvement: Bat to Ball

Bat to ball skills are the biggest area for improvement for Gorman in 2023, Gorman has historically posted very high strikeout rates, with a 37% strikeout rate in Triple A and 33% strikeout rate in MLB in 2022. His zone contact rate is also 8% less than average.

The most important thing he needs to improve with this skill is his ability to hit fastballs. Last season, Gorman had a -1 run value against fastballs. While he posted a xSLG of .455 against fastballs (meaning he hit them well when he made contact), the issue comes from the high swing and miss:

Looking at the whiff heat map above vs fastballs, we can see that Gorman struggled making contact on pitches at the top third of the zone. This weakness was soon exploited by opposing teams and Gorman had a hard time adjusting.

This article at MLB.com by John Denton says that Gorman worked over the offseason to adjust his swing in a way that will allow him a better chance at hitting fastballs at the top of the zone.

“He’s moving faster and … there’s more explosiveness in his swing ; Mechanically, the swing is flatter and that helps at the top of the zone and being able to get to the fastball that’s up. It’s different than last year when he kind of had that uphill move where he was collapsing and coming up through the zone.“

– Oliver Marmol, Cardinals’ Manager. Courtesy of MLB.com

Unfortunately, there has been very limited video of Gorman’s new swing so far. But I will follow up on the changes once there are better angles available.

What Will Gorman’s Role be in 2023?

Gorman played second base last season, but was developed as a third baseman. With Nolan Arenado at third for the Cardinals, Gorman was moved over to second base.

While I believe Gorman is better suited defensively for a corner infield or DH role, both of the corner slots are taken (Arenado and Goldschmidt).

While DH is still an option, his competition for second base is with Brendan Donovan, who also provides below average defense. With Gorman having the better bat, I would expect him to take the majority of time at second base with Donovan acting as a utility.

What do you think of Nolan Gorman?