Home runs are dominating baseball. Very rarely do we see a hitter who just tries to make contact and get on base anymore. Nothing frustrates me more than when I’m watching my team try to get ahead and they are swinging for the fences. I’d much rather watch my team just try to get on base, and then piece together a run.
Are there even any hitters like that anymore? Of course! The Mets have one who is fun to watch and who really made a name for himself last year: Jeff McNeil.
Jeff McNeil Hits for Average, Not Power
McNeil’s strikeout rate for the 2019 season was 13%, which is really good (20% is an average strikeout rate for MLB hitters). And how does he do this? When McNeil is at bat, he swings for contact instead of trying to hit a home run.
This strategy is very successful. McNeil can make contact on nearly anything put in the zone. Check out this heat map from Fangraphs for contact rate. Anywhere in the strike zone (outlined by the black box), McNeil makes contact more than 80% of the time, which is an above average contact rate. Contact rate of 80% is MLB average, but most power hitters fall below this mark. In most regions of the strike zone, McNeil is making contact more than 88% of the time, peaking at 94% in the inside middle zone (Left handed hitter McNeil stands on the left side of this graphic).
Now, contact does not necessarily mean he reaches base successfully. However, it allows him more chances to do so.
Jeff McNeil’s Aggressive Plate Approach Works
So we know that McNeil makes contact more than the average MLB hitter, but contact doesn’t necessarily mean results. So let’s take a look at his slugging versus different types of pitches.
How does Jeff McNeil do against hard pitches?
Against hard pitches, like the fastball, sinker, and cutter, McNeil is very successful. His slugging is very high inside the strike zone (outlined in a light brown box below). Check out the heat map from Brooks Baseball of McNeil’s slugging against hard pitches below. Note that this graphic is from the catcher’s perspective, so McNeil would stand on the right side as a left handed hitter.
The numbers shown underneath his slugging show the sample size. For example, if we look at the region where his slugging is 1.177, the number underneath is 20/17. This means that he reached 20 bases in 17 at-bats.
Not only can McNeil hit hard pitches, he has a particularly aggressive approach at the plate against them and is also at league average for missing them (16%).
Anyone can hit a fastball, what about breaking pitches?
Ok so he can hit fastballs, but what about breaking pitches like a curveball or slider? Turns out he can hit those pretty well too. Looking at the heat map below from Brooks Baseball, we can see that in the parts of the zone (outlined in the light brown box) McNeil’s been thrown breaking pitches, the results have been in his favor. Note that this graphic is from the catcher’s perspective, so McNeil would stand on the right side as a left handed hitter.
As you can see, McNeil is very capable of hitting breaking pitches consistently for singles and extra base hits. He has a very aggressive approach against them and similar to against hard pitches, he only misses at the league average rate (27% of the time for breaking pitches).
Jeff McNeil’s Hits Go Everywhere
Don’t like the shift? Well you won’t see it much against Jeff McNeil. He hits all over the place. Check out this spray chart from Baseball Savant to see where all of his base hits from 2019 ended up. Seems like the longer hits tend toward right field, but his singles can end up anywhere.
So he is capable of hitting pretty much any pitch, and where it ends up is unpredictable? Seems like a pretty strong combination to me.
I’m definitely excited to watch Jeff McNeil this year. And how’s he doing in summer camp? Seems like he’s going okay according to Mets beat writer, Anthony DiComo:
It’s always fun to watch someone in the box who you know has a good shot to get on base. The more runners on, the more pressure on the other team, and the more exciting the inning it. Hope to see more hitters like him join the majors.
What do you think of Jeff McNeil? Let me know in the comments below.