Can Rafael Devers Improve His Defense?

It’s no surprise to Red Sox fans to hear that Rafael Devers’ defense isn’t his most valuable tool. Since joining the major league club in 2017, Devers has been rocky at third base. At the plate, however, he’s been a superstar. If he’s defense can come around, he’d easily be considered one of the best players in the game. But is his defensive ability a lost cause? Let’s take a look.

Defensive Stats and Errors

Defensive/fielding stats are not perfect but they are telling of general trends for a player’s defensive ability. If we look at Rafael Devers’ defensive stats, we see that he his Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is significantly different in one of the three years that he’s been with the Red Sox. Defensive stats like UZR take about three years to regulate. What to learn more about UZR? Check out this article.

Any value greater than 0 for UZR is considered above average. This table tells us that his UZR was consistently below average in 2017 and 2018. But, in 2019 we see a difference as his UZR jumps to above average. This can indicate a couple of different things:

• Devers’ true UZR is closer to -4.6, and 2019 was an outlier
• Devers made an adjustment defensively, and it’s starting to pay off

Considering Devers is tied for 2^nd in errors for 2019, I’d understand if you believe the first option above: that his UZR will regress back to his true UZR value (below 0). However, there’s more to this story that might change your mind. 

Outs Above Average

The biggest change in Rafael Devers’ defense can be seen clearly when looking at his Outs Above Average (OAA). Read about OAA and how it’s calculated here.

For someone whose defense is supposed to be subpar, it came as a surprise to me to see Devers ranked so highly under the defense stat Outs Above Average. Devers is 19^th in the league in OAA at 7 (anything above 0 is above average) for the 2019 season. This value of 7 OAA is way up from his previous two season in the majors.

I think this jump from -7 to 7 OAA is very telling of a defensive improvement for Devers. Something he did during practice is certainly paying off. But before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s look deeper into these numbers by comparing his OAA for the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

Outs Above Average, when calculated, can be narrowed by direction relative to the player. As a third basement, Devers’ OAA can be split into OAA made to his left, right, front, and back. This can help identify his strengths and weaknesses in terms of how the location of a ball impacts his ability to field it effectively.

When we break his OAA into these four zones, there is a story to be told.

Between 2018 and 2019, Devers improved his OAA on plays to his right (towards third), to his left (towards first) and behind him. He is still below average when fielding balls to his right, but an improvement is still a good sign.

Devers’ strongest zone is balls to his left (towards first). My gut reaction here was that there was something going on with his arm that may be affecting the way he makes plays in the three other zones. It’s possible that a player with a weaker arm would struggle having to throw the ball consistently from third to first.

Rafael Devers’ Arm

Devers has an incredible, above average arm. So the strength required to throw it to first base should not be a problem for him. Accuracy, however, is a different story.

The arm accuracy of Devers is not at the level of other major league players yet, which is a major contributor to his defensive struggles. A reason this might be is because he did not spend a lot of time in the minor leagues.

Barely Any Time in the Minors

Devers only played 15 games in Triple A, and only 77 games in Double A. That’s less than 100 games total in the higher levels of the minors. Because of his natural baseball talent, he sprinted through the minors and did not have as much time as other players to practice fielding at higher levels.

This is also a reasonable explanation for the improvement in his defensive stats between 2018 and 2019. Devers had more playing experience. He is getting used to seeing the ball at the major league level and understanding repetition, fundamentals, and feel for how to field various balls hit his way.

Expect Better Defense from Devers in the Coming Years

Devers is still a young player with a lot to learn. Considering his limited time in the minor leagues, there is still room for improvement in Rafael Devers’ defense. His defensive stats starting to take an upward trend is a good sign. He is obviously practicing, gaining more experience by playing every day, and continuing to learn. Give him a chance to prove what he is capable of defensively. The talent is there, he just needs more time to develop as a young player.