Gary Sánchez followed up his all-star 2019 season with the worst season of his career. Despite struggling to the point where he was benched in the playoffs, Sánchez rebounded and has come out swinging in 2021 (literally). He’s hitting .238/.345/.492 on the year with a wRC+ of 128 (28% above average).
Sánchez’s approach remains the same as in years prior. He is a power hitter who pulls the ball, but has also demonstrated power to the opposite field occasionally.
Sánchez’s overall plate discipline stats are improved, with the exception of his in-zone contact rate. Compared to last season, he is swinging in-zone more but making less contact. He is also chasing less and also making more contact when he does chase.
The decrease in in-zone contact rate is a red flag, but it seems like Sánchez is seeing the ball better overall this season. In addition to the plate discipline stats in the table above, his strikeout rate is down 10% from 2020 and his walk rate is above league average at 12.7%.
In terms of quality of contact, Sánchez’s hard hit rate remains close to an elite level at 47%. His average exit velocity on the year is above average at 91.4 mph, and is consistent with that of years prior.
So Sánchez is seeing the ball well and hitting it well. His plate discipline looks very similar to his 2017 and 2019 seasons, which were the best two of his career so far. But can he maintain his success, or will the second half of 2021 look more like his down years?
There are three reasons why I believe Sánchez’s success will continue at least through the end of this season:
- His expected stats are in line with his actual stats
- He is performing better against fastballs
- He made changes to his swing
Expected vs Actual Stats
In terms of his expected versus actual stats, Sánchez’s actual batting average and slugging percentage are in line with his expected. This is a good sign for things to come because expected stats consider the quality of contact. Earlier we noticed that Sánchez’s quality of contact has been great so far this season, and the similarities between his actual and expected stats indicate no signs of potential regression moving forward into the remainder of the season.
Better Performance vs Fastballs
Looking at how he is performing against each pitch category (fastballs, breaking, off-speed), fastballs have been a weakness for Sánchez in the past. This season he is still whiffing against fastballs at a high rate (30%), but he is performing significantly better against them compared to 2020 in terms of slugging percentage (.505 in 2021 vs .450 in 2020). This is great because Sánchez is seeing fastballs 5% more this season than last.
While we are on the subject of how he is being pitched, Sánchez is seeing breaking pitches 5% less. Similarly to fastballs, he is performing significantly better against breaking pitches this season. He has improved his slugging percentage versus breaking pitches by .344. This improvement versus fastballs and breaking pitches allows Sánchez to be a much bigger threat at the plate when compared to last season, as pitchers will have to be more careful about what they throw him.
Swing Changes
The most major improvement Sánchez made is to his swing. I consider this to be the most major improvement because it is allowing him to have all the success described above, while simultaneously allowing Sánchez a stance with more sustainable success for future seasons.
The first change in his swing appears in his initial stance. In 2020, Sánchez rested his bat on his shoulder pre-swing, and only raised it during his load. This season, his initial stance has the bat higher above his shoulder. This allows his hands to already be in a ready position, instead of moving them there during his load as he did in previous seasons.
The second swing change appears during his load. In 2020, Sánchez had a high leg kick. This season it is a much smaller lift. The elimination of the leg kick may allow Sánchez to be better balanced and maintain a more stable eye level. The smaller leg lift is more common to contact hitters, so this change can also be a contributing factor to the 10% drop in Sánchez’s strikeout rate.
So far in 2021, Sánchez has demonstrated that he is able to come out of a very troubling slump and make the necessary adjustments for success. While we should still have realistic expectations for Sánchez at the plate (he is a catcher after all), I believe we can continue to see him maintain this offensive performance throughout the remainder of the season.