Breaking Down the Adam Frazier Trade

Adam Frazier was sent to the Padres in a four player trade and cash last night. In return, the Pirates received the Padres’ number 5 prospect Tucupita Marcano, and two lower level prospects Jack Suwinski and Michell Miliano. 

What does Adam Frazier bring to the Padres?

Adam Frazier is amidst the best season of his career and is under team control until the end of the 2022 season. He adds another left handed bat to the Padres’ line-up. 

Frazier is the type of player who hits for average (.324 this season), and is leading the majors in hits at 125. His strikeout rate is in the top 3% of the league at 11%, and he has an average walk rate. 

And how does he have such a great batting average? He’s able to make contact way more frequently than the league average hitter.

His in-zone contact rate is 11% higher than league average and his chase contact rate is 16% higher than league average. Frazier also swings and misses 12% less frequently than league average, only 12% of the time. 

Prior to the 2021 season, Frazier’s numbers were closer to those of a league average hitter or slightly above league average depending on the year. The increased contact this season has allowed him to become more valuable offensively. 

One misleading red flag for Frazier is that he does not make strong contact, meaning his hard hit rate (26%) and average exit velocity (85.7 mph) are well below average. As a result his expected batting average, while still at the top of the league (.298), is significantly lower than his actual (.324). However, this is not a concern for Frazier because his specialty is contact. He is not looking to drive the ball for power or do anything too crazy. He’s just putting the ball in play as much as possible, and this season it’s really working well for him. 

In terms of his defense, Frazier is a second baseman with the ability to also play left field. His defensive metrics at second are above league average, with 6 defensive runs saved in 2020 at that position and 2 defensive runs saved in 2021. In left field, he is a league average defender.

Who did the Pirates Get Back?

The Pirates received three players from the Padres: Tucupita Marcano, Jack Suwinski, and Michell Marcano.

Tucupita Marcano (INF/OF)

Tucupita Marcano, like Frazier is also a left handed hitter with an above average hit tool. He hit .272/.367/.444 in Triple A this season with a low strikeout rate (13%) and high walk rate (14%). He also had the opportunity to play 25 games at the major league level, but did not reach his Triple A numbers. Instead, he hit .182/.280/.205 with an 18% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate. This strikeout rate and walk rate are still better than league average at the major league level. 

Marcano is a very similar player to Frazier, as he also hits for contact. 

He is better than the league average hitter at making contact on in-zone pitches and out of zone pitches. He also does not swing and miss as frequently as the league average hitter. 

It seems like the Pirates targeted a player who has a similar make-up to Frazier, who will be a member of the team for the foreseeable future while he’s under team control. 

Jack Suwinski (OF)

One of the lower level prospects in the deal is outfielder Jack Suwinski. Like Frazier and Marcano, Suwinski is capable of getting on base frequently, but he can also hit for power. In 66 games in Double A this season, Suwinski has hit .269/.398/.551 with a .282 ISO (isolated power) and 15 home runs. His walk rate is also very impressive at 17%. His strikeout rate is higher than Marcano’s at 28%, but will hopefully improve through his development. 

Michell Miliano (RHP)

The other lower level prospect, and the final piece of the trade is right handed pitcher Michell Miliano. Miliano started the year in Low A and had pitched four games in High A before being traded. His K/9 rate in Low A (18 games) was 18.2 and he had a FIP of 4.49. I don’t think it is fair to read too much into his numbers until he progresses higher up in the minor leagues and more information on him becomes available. Based on some scouting reports (very limited info), Miliano has an above average fastball and an average curveball. 

Concluding Thoughts

When I first saw the trade, I thought that the Pirates could have gotten a little more back from Frazier because of how well he’s been doing this season and because he is under team control for another year. But it seems like the Pirates are very pleased with their return, as Tucupita Marcano was a big target for them. So big of a target that they were willing to send over $1.4 million in cash to the Padres to complete the deal. I expect we’ll see Marcano in the majors some more this season, and I am excited to watch his progression in the next few years with Pittsburgh.

As for the Padres, it can never hurt to have more talented players on your team, especially when they are leading the league in hits! Frazier would have been a great addition to any contender, and he is certainly a strong addition to San Diego.