The Toronto Blue Jays and their All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette could not come to an agreement on Bichette’s salary for the 2023 season. Bo Bitchette is asking for $7.5 million, and the Blue Jays are offering $5 million. With a $2.5 million gap between proposed salaries, it seems more and more likely that Bichette’s case will be headed to trial. But who will win?

Let’s look at this from both the player and the team perspective to figure out who has the better case.

But first, a brief explanation for how to build an arbitration case. And if you need a refresher check out this article to learn more about what arbitration is and how it works.

How to Build an Arbitration Case

There are four major components when building an arbitration case:

1. Basic stats (Plate appearances, batting average, hits, etc.)
2. Comparable players
3. The player’s platform year (PY) performance
4. The player’s career performance (if the player going through the arbitration process for the first time)

“Platform Year” refers to the season leading up to when the player was eligible for arbitration. In Bichette’s case, he is eligible for arbitration this offseason (2022-2023), so his platform year is 2022.

We are going to figure out how much Bichette should earn using the factors above, and based on a slotting system that uses historical player comps. The first step is to find player comps for Bichette.

The ideal comp for Bichette is a shortstop who is also first time eligible for arbitration. But because of how limited that pool of players ends up being, we will simply use all first time eligible position players instead, dating back to 2017.

Below is an abridged table of comps, I cutoff players at the higher and lower ends of the salary structure for simplification. Green highlighted rows represent other shortstops, and yellow highlighted rows represent where Bichette would slot given the player and team proposed salaries.

Now let’s dive in to how both Bichette and the Blue Jays determined their proposed salaries.

Player Perspective

As we go through the slotting process, we will break down the stats we are comparing into three categories for both the platform year and career:

1. Time: How often was the player able to contribute? (PA)
2. Counting: What was the player’s raw productivity? (H, HRs)
3. Quality: How was the player’s consistency and overall performance? (AVG, OPS)

For the career stats, the year 2020 is a bit of a wrinkle when comparing players. To try and create a more far comparison, I multiplied 2020 stats by 2.7 (which is 162 games in a regular season / 60 games in 2020) and incorporated those totals in the career. I did not adjust career quality stats (AVG, OPS).

Here is the list of players again, but from the player perspective. Since the player is aiming for a higher salary, we will focus on players above the midpoint salary ($6.25 million – midpoint between proposed player and team salary).

Does Bichette actually slot between Judge and Alonso? Let’s take a look, starting with Judge.

Aaron Judge vs. Bo Bichette

Looking at the table above, I can make the following conclusions:

• Bichette beats Judge in terms of Time Stats.
• Counting Stats are a tie between Judge and Bichette.
• Judge beats Bichette in terms of Quality Stats. While Bichette has a slightly better AVG in the platform year and career, Judge significantly outperforms Bichette in terms of OPS.

As supplemental information, we can compare awards achieved through each player’s platform year:

• Judge won Rookie of the Year, Silver Slugger, made two All-Star appearances and had MVP votes in two seasons.
• Bichette had one All-Star appearance and had MVP votes in two seasons.

Based on the information above, Bichette should earn less than Judge ($8.5 million).

Pete Alonso vs. Bo Bichette

Looking at the table above, I can make the following conclusions:

• Bichette beats Alonso in terms of Time Stats.
• Counting Stats are a tie between Alonso and Bichette.
• Quality Stats are a tie between Alonso and Bichette.

As supplemental information, we can compare awards achieved through each player’s platform year:

• Alonso won Rookie of the Year, had one All-Star appearance, and had MVP votes in one season
• Bichette had one All-Star appearance and had MVP votes in two seasons

Additionally, Bichette plays a premium position (SS), while Alonso is a corner infielder.

This is a much closer argument. Bichette should earn slightly more than Alonso ($7.4 million), with his position giving him the edge.

Now that we have a general idea of how Bichette decided on $7.5 million, let’s see how the Blue Jays decided on $5 million.

Team Perspective

Here is the list of players again, but this time from the team perspective. Since the team’s goal is to save money, we are focusing on salaries less than the midpoint ($6.25 million).

Let’s see how the Blue Jays slotted Bichette at $5 million, starting with J.P. Crawford.

J.P. Crawford vs Bo Bichette

Looking at the table above, I can make the following conclusions:

• Bichette beats Crawford in terms of Time Stats.
• Bichette beats Crawford in terms of Counting Stats.
• Bichette beats Crawford in terms of Quality Stats.

While it is clear Bichette should earn more than Crawford, here is an award comparison for reference:

• Crawford won a Gold Glove during his platform year
• Bichette had one All-Star appearance and had MVP votes in two seasons

Based on the information above, Bichette should earn more than Crawford ($4.85 million).

Trevor Story vs Bo Bichette

Looking at the table above, I can make the following conclusions:

• Bichette beats Story in terms of Time Stats.
• Counting Stats is a tie between Story and Bichette.
• Quality Stats are similar, with a slight edge to Story. Story clearly outperformed Bichette in terms of OPS during their platform years.

As supplemental information, we can compare awards achieved through each player’s platform year:

• Story won the Silver Slugger, had one All-Star appearance, and had MVP votes in one season.
• Bichette had one All-Star appearance and had MVP votes in two seasons.

Based on the information above, Bichette should earn similarly to Story ($5 million).

Carlos Correa vs Bo Bichette

Looking at the table above, I can make the following conclusions:

• Time Stats is a tie between Correa and Bichette.
• Bichette beats Correa in terms of Counting Stats.
• Bichette beats Correa in terms of Quality Stats, but they have a very similar career OPS.

As supplemental information, we can compare awards achieved through each player’s platform year:

• Correa won Rookie of the Year, had one All-Star appearance, and had MVP votes in two seasons.
• Bichette had one All-Star appearance and had MVP votes in two seasons.

This is a close argument, so Bichette should earn similarly to Correa ($5 million).

Who Will Win the Arbitration Trial: Bo Bichette or the Toronto Blue Jays?

We’ve walked through two strong arguments for where Bo Bichette should slot. If Bichette’s case goes to trial, the arbitration panel will have to decide between the two salaries ($5 million vs $7.5 million) and cannot come up with another proposal on their own.

How can they determine which salary is more appropriate if Bichette slots well at both $5 million and $7.5 million?

Here is where the midpoint salary ($6.25 million) will come into play. If either side can clearly demonstrate than Bichette should earn more or less than the midpoint, they have a clear path to victory.

Unfortunately, there is not a player comp at the midpoint we can use. So each side will have to lean on the closest comps to the midpoint to complete their arguments.

On the player side, the closest comp is Pete Alonso, who we already compared to Bichette above. As a reminder, Bichette and Alonso were similar, but we have Bichette with a slight edge over Alonso.

On the team side, there are a two more comps between the two proposed salaries we can look at:

• Maikel Franco ($5.2 million)
• Javier Baez ($5.2 million)

Maikel Franco vs Bo Bichette

Looking at the table above, I can make the following conclusions:

• Time Stats is a tie between Franco and Bichette.
• Counting Stats are similar, but Bichette has an edge due the large gap in hits.
• Bichette clearly beats Franco in terms of Quality Stats.

As supplemental information, we can compare awards achieved through each player’s platform year:

• Franco does not have any awards.
• Bichette had one All-Star appearance and had MVP votes in two seasons.

Additionally, Bichette plays a premium position, and Franco is a corner infielder.

Based on the information above, Bichette should earn more than Franco ($5.2 million).

Javier Baez vs Bo Bichette

Looking at the table above, I can make the following conclusions:

• Bichette beats Baez in terms of Time Stats.
• Counting Stats are similar, but Bichette has an edge due the large gap in hits in the career.
• Quality Stats are similar, but Bichette has an edge due to the large gap in OPS in the career.

As supplemental information, we can compare awards achieved through each player’s platform year:

• Baez won the Silver Slugger award, had one All-Star appearance, and MVP votes in one season.
• Bichette had one All-Star appearance and had MVP votes in two seasons.

Based on the information above, Bichette should earn more than Baez ($5.2 million).

Let’s see where this leaves us:

Bichette beats every comp between the proposed salaries of $5 million and $7.5 million.

If Bichette and the Blue Jays do not come to an agreement, they will be heading to trial in the next month or so. And it looks like Bichette has a pretty strong case to win.