The Blue Jays may be the 8th seed in the American League, but that doesn’t mean they will be an easy team to beat. In fact, with all the young, hungry talent that they have, I believe the Blue Jays will put up a strong fight to continue playing October baseball. They will be an exciting team to watch, but what makes them such a threat? All you need to know can be found here, the Blue Jays Playoff Profile.
Impact Hitters
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez has been the best hitter on the Blue Jays this year. He is leading the team in home runs (16) and in SLG (.579).
He is top 4% in the league in terms of hard hit percentage (53% of the time), and is the top 1% in terms of barrel percentage (18%). The combination of his elite barrel percentage and his incredible hard hit percentage is what led him to being tied for 7th in the league for most home runs.
The visual below shows all of his balls in play, with the dark red zone highlighted as the “barrel” zone. In order to be considered a barreled ball, the ball must be hit harder than 95mph and between the angles of 8 and 55 degrees. Those maroon spots in the barrel zone all resulted in home runs.
*The illustration above from Baseball Savant includes data from 2019, it has not yet been updated for 2020.
Hernandez hits the ball hard, and gets the necessary launch angle to hit the ball far. He will be one of the biggest offensive threats for the Blue Jays this October.
Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. had a great year, landing in the top 7% of the league in terms of hard hit percentage (50%). He also was seeing the ball really well. He had an above average strikeout rate for a hitter, meaning he struck out less than average.
Guerrero Jr. favors the left side of the field for infield hits, so I’d expect to see some shifts against him this postseason. The Rays (who are playing the Blue Jays in the Wildcard round) are known for some wacky shifts, including their four man outfield against another Blue Jays player, Cavan Biggio.
Check out the visual below from Baseball Savant for how the Rays have shifted Guerrero Jr. during the regular season. This is what we can expect to see come Tuesday (Game 1).
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had a hard hit percentage this year of 48%. What’s even more impressive is that his hard hit percentage has been consistently in the range of 45-48% in each of the three years that he’s been on the Blue Jays.
At this point I’d just like to pause and emphasize how impressive it is that these three hitters so far (Hernandez, Guerrero Jr. and Gurriel Jr.) all hit the ball so hard this year. They all rank in the Top 30 players in MLB for hard hit percentage. Average hard hit percentage for an MLB player is 35%, and all of their hard hit percentages are at least 13% higher than average.
So we know that from year to year Gurriel Jr.’s hit the ball hard. But, this year in addition, he’s also struck out less and walked more. Gurriel Jr. also ranks second on the team in terms of SLG , at .534.
Check out this spray chart from Baseball Savant for everywhere his hits have ended up this season. Similarly to Guerrero, Gurriel Jr. favors the left side of the field.
Impact Pitchers
After the trade deadline, the Blue Jays really upgraded their rotation. In fact, two of the pitchers they acquired, Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker, I thought would be a good fit for the Rays.
Hyun-Ji Ryu
Hyun-Ji Ryu throws five pitches effectively, and has had a great year. He leads the Blue Jays in ERA (2.69) and strikeouts (72). Ryu is top 10% in the league in terms of limiting hard hit balls, which he gets only 29% of the time. That is 6% better than average for a MLB pitcher. He’s also good at limiting barreled balls as a result (less home runs and long hits).
Since he’s been so good at reducing barreled balls, he’s also been great at getting ground balls. His ground ball rate on the year is 52%.
Ryu typically relied on his fourseam and curveball most for first pitches and when there are two strikes. His fourseam has excellent horizontal movement, and his curveball has above average horizontal and vertical movement. His curveball ends up as a strike 36% of the time, the highest of all his pitches.
This year, however Ryu switched up his pitch mix and threw his change-up a career high 27% of the time. I believe the change-up is Ryu’s best pitch. He has above average vertical movement on his change-up, which results in the most swings and misses (30% of the time) among all his pitches.
Check out the visual below from Baseball Savant for where Ryu tends to place his change-up.
Ryu is expected to start Game 2 against the Rays on Wednesday (9/30).
Rafael Dolis
Reliever Rafael Dolis has really stood out this year. He walks a lot of batters, but also gets 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings pitched and has done great at limiting hard hit balls.
He relies primarily on three pitches: sinker, splitter, and slider. While his sinker is his most used pitch, his slider can be very effective. It has above average vertical movement, and the opponent SLG against his slider in 2020 is only .111.
Injury Updates
Matt Shoemaker, who was placed on the 10-Day IL earlier this season with shoulder inflammation, was activated on September 21st. He will be starting Game 1 against the Rays on 9/29.
Concluding Thoughts
The Blue Jays hit the ball hard. Hitting is by far the strongest piece of their game. I know I only mentioned three hitters in this article, but that doesn’t mean that the rest of the team are easy outs. Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio in particular will also be tough at the plate.
The Blue Jays improved their pitching since the trade deadline, but I wonder if it will be enough if they advance to the later rounds of the playoffs and have to play longer series (best of 5) to win.
The biggest strength of the Blue Jays, in my opinion, is their heart. They are strong team who is excited and wants to win. When their offense gets going, they are very difficult to tame.