While center field and right field are locks for Atlanta (Michael Harris and Ronald Acuña Jr.), left field’s starter is still up in the air. There are three candidates for the left field role heading into the season:

• Eddie Rosario (LHH)
• Sam Hilliard (LHH)
• Jordan Luplow (RHH)

Let’s do a quick dive into each one before we predict how this will shape up.

If you prefer video walkthroughs, check out this video:

Eddie Rosario

In 2022, Eddie Rosario hit .212/.259/.328 in 270 plate appearances. Breaking down his hitting profile:

• Power: Less power than average, meaning his max exit velocity and hard hit rates are both below average.
• Bat to Ball Skills: Zone contact rate and strikeout rate have historically been better than average, but his zone contact rate fell to below average in 2022.
• Plate Discipline: Has an aggressive approach, but has a historically high chase rate and low walk rate.

In terms of fielding, Rosario plays poor defense in the corner outfield. Despite having some speed, he struggles moving to the ball laterally, as well as back right and back left.

Sam Hilliard

In 2022, Sam Hilliard hit .184/.280/.264 in 200 plate appearances. Breaking down his hitting profile:

• Power: Plus power. Hilliard has an elite max exit velocity in 2022 of 115mph. He also has above average hard hit rates.
• Bat to Ball Skills: Zone contact rate and strikeout rate have historically been poor.
• Plate Discipline: Historically worse than average, but improved his chase rate and walk rate in 2022 to better than average.

In terms of fielding, Hilliard provides average defense in the corner outfield. He is fast and has above average arm strength (89th percentile per Baseball Savant).

Jordan Luplow

In 2022, Jordan Luplow hit .176/.274/.361 in 234 plate appearances. Breaking down his hitting profile:

• Power: Below average in terms of his max exit velocity and hard hit rates. However, he does well at getting the ball in the air and hitting few ground balls.
• Bat to Ball Skills: Zone contact rate and strikeout rate have historically been worse than average.
• Plate Discipline: Has a more patient approach. Historically better than average chase rates and walk rates.

In terms of fielding, Luplow provides average defense in the corner outfield. He has some speed and has elite arm strength (96th percentile per Baseball Savant).

Platoon Options

While none of the hitters above have above average offensive profiles, their results look better when using each player as a platoon:

Rosario and Hilliard have much better results vs right-handed pitching and Luplow has much better results vs left-handed pitching. So right off the bat, of the three options I would start Luplow in left field when facing a left-handed pitcher.

When facing right-handed pitching we are stuck between Rosario and Hilliard. As we explored above in the player profiles, Rosario and Hilliard have different strengths. Hilliard has more raw power and walks, while Rosario has better bat to ball skills and as posted slightly better results historically against right-handed pitchers.

As two left-handed hitters, both are likely to benefit from the shift ban. Looking at the spray charts for all batted balls vs right-handed pitchers in 2022, both hit a lot of ground balls to the pull side. Without the shift, fewer of these hits will be automatic outs.

My guess is Rosario may benefit more from the shift ban because he is able to put more balls in play. Additionally, most of his ground balls seem to be hit between where the first and second baseman are likely to be positioned, creating a hole for the ball to go through. But knowing this, teams may advise their second baseman to stand in a better position to field those balls (closer to the middle of the two bags).

The other side of this argument is that Hilliard hits the ball so much harder, making it harder to reach by the infielders. Similarly to Rosario, teams will shift Hilliard as best they can. For him, it may look more like the fielders playing all the way up against the outfield grass. They may also put the shortstop as close to the second base bag as possible, given how many balls Hilliard hit up the middle last season.

So Who Should Play Left Field vs Right-Handed Pitchers?

I’m feeling okay about Jordan Luplow starting vs left-handed pitchers, but who should starts vs right-handed pitchers?

I’m leaning Hilliard because he at least provides better defense than Rosario. I’m not sure how advanced the Braves in-game matchups are, but teams like the Giants create matchups using swing path information (meaning which hitter has a swing path that would give him more of an advantage vs a certain pitcher). It’s possible the Braves can determine who the better matchup is on a day by day basis using information similar to that. Otherwise, I would start by giving Hilliard some more reps in left, and if it doesn’t go well then they still have the option to give Rosario another chance.

Who do you think should play left field for the Braves this year?