Relief pitchers, as always, are in high demand this trade deadline. This year they seem to be even more of a need given how many injuries we’ve seen from pitchers.
The Rockies are 13 games back in the NL West, and 8 games back of the Wildcard. They are not competing this season, so it would make sense for them to trade players and get returns that would help rebuild their organization.
Do the Colorado Rockies have any interesting relievers that can be traded this deadline?
If you prefer video breakdowns, check out this video:
Overview of the Rockies Pen
The Rockies bullpen ranks 22nd in the league in terms of bullpen ERA, at 4.53. They don’t have a single pitcher with an above average walk rate this season:
Jake Bird and Brent Suter have league average walk rates so far. But while Brent Suter has an above average career walk rate of 6%, Jake Bird has a career walk rate that is below average at 10%.
Matt Carasiti has only pitched 14 innings, but also has a career walk rate of 12%.
Which of these pitchers could be of interest to another team?
Justin Lawrence – 3.08 ERA, 25% K Rate, 11% BB Rate
Justin Lawrence is having the best season of his career, with a 3.08 ERA, 2.80 xERA, and xSLG of .285. He throws two pitches (sinker and slider) from a sidearm slot, gets ground balls, and works primarily east/west.
His 93-97mph sinker gets above average sink and some natural run due to the low arm slot. It has a ground ball rate of 82%, which is 24% more ground balls than MLB average. His 82-86mph slider (video above) is very sweepy and gets 4% more miss in-zone than average.
Lawrence’s biggest struggle has been his below average control. However, this season he is doing a much better job of throwing in-zone and getting ahead. His zone rate is a career high 64% (5% better than MLB avg) and his first pitch strike rate is a career high 70% (9% better than MLB average).
Looking at Lawrence’s splits, he has historically been much better against right-handed hitters. This makes sense, as his pitch combination typically works better against batters of the same hand. Check out his career splits in the table below:
Knowing this, we can expect Lawrence to be used primarily against right-handed hitters if he is traded.
The problem that might arise when trying to trade Lawrence is that he is out of options. If you need a refresher on how Minor League Options work, check out this article. Options are incredibly valuable, especially in a bullpen. This is because having options remaining provides more flexibility in roster moves.
So then the question becomes: Is Lawrence good enough to trade for and secure a spot for in the bullpen for the remainder of the season?
This answer will vary depending on which contender may be interested in adding him. If Lawrence is a clear improvement over the team’s current options, it may be worth a conversation to see what his asking price is.
However, for contenders who are looking to add depth and high-end relievers to their pen, Lawrence does not cut it. Due to him not having options, his historically below average control, and his limited usage due to his platoon splits, Lawrence is not dominant enough in my opinion to warrant taking up a spot that can be used as a flex in the remainder of the season.
Contenders are contenders for a reason, meaning most of them likely have few bullpen spots to work with. I think we are more likely to see the latter reasoning in terms of whether teams will actively pursue Lawrence.
Jake Bird – 3.50 ERA, 25% K Rate, 8% BB Rate
Jake Bird is a ground ball pitcher with a low ¾ slot who throws three pitches (sinker, curveball, cutter) with average control.
His 92-96mph sinker gets plus sink and 8% more ground balls than average. His 78-83mph curveball (video above) gets plus sweep, 13% more chase than average, and 10% more ground balls than average. His 87-92-mph cutter gets above average cut and 6% more miss in-zone than average.
Compared to Lawrence, Bird has more even career splits:
With less than one year of MLB service time and three options remaining, Bird also has a more intriguing profile as a trade candidate for a team looking to add relief depth.
Daniel Bard – 0.87 ERA, 21% K Rate, 22% BB Rate
Daniel Bard had a breakout season last year and finished with an elite 1.79 ERA. So far this season, his ERA remains elite, but he has seen some setbacks. Bard started the season on the injured list due to anxiety. Since his return, his 6.28 xERA puts him in the bottom 5% of the league, and his 22% walk rate in the bottom 1%.
His sinker velocity is also down over 3mph compared to 2022. But, the results of the pitch seem to be aligned with those of last season for now.
Now getting into what he brings to the table – Bard throws a slider and sinker from a low ¾ slot, and rarely mixes in a fourseam. His pitch usage looks different so far compared to 2022. He is throwing his sinker 15% less, his slider 6% more, and his fourseam 7% more.
His 84-88mph slider has above average sweep and has historically gotten chase and 10% more miss in-zone than average. His 92-97mph sinker has average sink and gets 13% more ground balls than average. His 92-96mph fourseam has poor movement and looks very similar to his sinker:
The fourseam has historically gotten below average results in terms of chase and in-zone miss. After reducing the usage significantly in 2022 (down 31% compared to 2021), I’m surprised Bard started throwing it again.
In terms of whether the Rockies will trade Bard – last season I was surprised to see he was not traded, given his elite performance, high value, and the fact he was going to reach free agency at the end of the season with a non-competitive team.
Instead just before the trade deadline, the Rockies signed Bard to a 2-yr $19M extension for the 2023-2024 seasons. This makes it even more unlikely that the Rockies will trade him. If they didn’t trade him last year when it made sense to, unless they receive a crazy offer I doubt they trade him now.
Concluding Thoughts:
The Rockies are in an interesting spot because they are lacking any stand-out dominant reliever that could get a large return. The more intriguing relievers they do have are more likely to slot in as middle relievers or depth options on a contender. Of the more intriguing relievers, Jake Bird seems like the best fit to be traded when considering Lawrence’s lack of options and Bard’s recently signed contract.
Additionally, the 2022 deadline was very strange from the Rockies’ perspective. They were the only team to not make a single deadline move. In 2021, they only made one move. So if history repeats itself, we might not see much trade deadline activity from the Rockies again this season.