Between Morton becoming a free agent and Snell being traded, the Rays have had a busy offseason. They have quite a few more moves to make if they want to be competitive in 2021, and it has some speculating whether the Rays are going to trade Kevin Kiermaier next.
Bob Nightengale even tweeted about it last week:
But how realistic is it to trade Kiermaier at this point?
The Rays Have a Lot of Outfielders
If the Rays have enough of any position, its outfielders. On the current roster, they have:
- Randy Arozarena
- Kevin Kiermaier
- Manuel Margot
- Austin Meadows
- Brett Phillips
- Yoshi Tsutsugo
Now, I don’t picture Phillips or Tsutsugo being everyday players anytime soon. But if the Rays were to lose Kiermaier, Arozarena or Margot can take over his place in centerfield.
Kevin Kiermaier has the Rays’ biggest remaining contract
Kiermaier signed a 6 year contract extension that ends in 2023. He is slated to earn:
- In 2021: $11.5 million
- 2022: $12.5 million
- 2023: $13 million / $2.5 million buyout
2020 was a rough year financially for every team in baseball. And looking at Kiermaier’s contract, it makes sense if the Rays were strongly considering trading him to relieve the salary obligation.
There are a few difficulties, however, in trading Kiermaier. Let’s look at a few of them.
Injury Prone
When Kiermaier plays, he plays hard. And sometimes he plays a little too hard, resulting in injury. Looking at his past few years since joining the major league club, we see that Kiermaier has missed quite a bit of playing time:
- 2016: Fractured left hand
- 2017: Right hip fracture
- 2018: Torn ligament in right thumb
- 2019: Left thumb sprain
Inconsistent Offensive Ability
I think we can all agree that Kiermaier is an elite centerfielder. At 31 years old, he is still making highlight reel plays night in and night out.
That being said, his defensive skills are only half the game. During the first few years in the majors, Kiermaier was an average/above average hitter. But the 2018 season marked a decline in production, and he has been below average since.
2018 was the year of Kiermaier’s right thumb injury, and his shortest season (excluding 2020) at 88 games.
Check out the graph below, which shows Kiermaier’s SLG vs MLB avg since 2014.
By no means are we expecting Kiermaier to be a power hitter. But with Kiermaier’s speed, you want him to get on base as much as possible. He does not walk much, and his AVG has been steadily decling along with SLG since 2018.
A bright spot, however, is that he has been hitting the ball harder overall the past couple seasons. Hopefully we’ll start seeing that be translated into hits.
Tough Free Agent Market
One of the biggest challenges in trading Kiermaier is who the Rays would get back. This year, there are two free agent centerfielders: George Springer and Jackie Bradley Jr.
Bradley Jr. is a very similar player to Kiermaier, and it would be hard for a team to justify making a trade instead of just signing Bradley Jr. on their own terms.
Because of Kiermaier’s salary, even if a team wants to trade for him, the team would most likely expect the Rays to cover some of the remaining $23 million of his contract. If the Rays are looking to trade Kiermaier to dump his salary, this expectation defeats the purpose.
So what’s next for Kiermaier?
I would expect the Rays to hang onto Kiermaier for now. Even though GM Erik Neander says the Rays are not waving the white flag on the season, there are certainly doubts about how they plan to compete at this point. As optimistic as I am, with the current roster they cannot win the World Series this year. Especially looking at some of the moves other teams have made thus far.
Thinking historically, my prediction is that Kiermaier will stay on the team for at least the first half of this season. He will hopefully bring up his trade value by performing well, and then the Rays will trade him high.
What do you think the future holds for Kevin Kiermaier?