The AL East is going to be a tough division this year. Who are some players we should keep an eye on this season? Check out my under the radar picks below, and share yours in the comments!
Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins
For the Orioles, I picked two players to watch, Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins, because they will be sharing time at centerfield this season.
They have similar offensive numbers, and it would make sense if they platooned for each other. Mullins, previously a switch hitter, as said that he’s only going to be batting as a left handed hitter this season.
Defensively, Mullins has an edge over Hays. That being said, they have different strengths. Hays has a plus arm with strength and carry. Mullins has plus range, which contributes to more defensive outs above average than Hays.
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Richards
Garrett Richards is my player to watch for the Red Sox. He signed as a free agent this offseason after spending most of his career with the Angels and the past two seasons with the Padres.
Richards throws a lot of different pitches, but in recent years has phased out the change-up and cutter. He relies primarily on the fourseam and slider, but also throws a sinker and curveball. Richards has the lowest opponent SLG versus his two primary pitches, the fourseam and slider. His secondary pitches get hit more frequently, but his curveball gets the second most swings and misses behind his slider.
Both the curveball and the slider get above average vertical movement compared to those of similar pitchers. The spin rate on his curveball is elite, and the same goes for his fourseam. Both pitches spin rates were within the top 2% of the league last season.
His strike out rate has been average or above average throughout his career. His hard hit rate was average last season as well, which was an improvement from the years prior.
Though Richards may not become the best pitcher on the Red Sox, he has a lot of upside. The above average spin rates and pitch movement will make him an interesting pitcher to watch this season.
New York Yankees: Jordan Montgomery
My Yankees player to watch in 2021 is left handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery is at risk of being overlooked in the Yankees rotation because he follows Cole, Taillon, and Kluber. For this reason, I think he is an undervalued weapon in their rotation.
Montgomery did a good job at limiting hard hit balls in 2020 and had a very low walk rate at 4.7%, which put him in the top 4% of the league.
Looking into what he throws, Montgomery has five pitches: sinker, change-up, curveball, fourseam, and cutter. He previously threw a slider, but did not throw it at all in 2020. Instead, he introduced a cutter. While he only threw the cutter 54 times in 2020, he was working on further developing it this spring. From the small sample we have, the cutter has above average vertical movement and a 16% whiff rate. The cutter can turn into a really good pitch for him and can act as another weapon in his arsenal.
Tampa Bay Rays: Manuel Margot
My player to watch for the 2021 Rays is outfielder Manuel Margot. Margot’s defense is a major undervalued weapon.
The past two seasons Margot has an above average number of defensive runs saved as well as outs above average. Margot ranks 5th in the league for 2019 and 2020 in terms of outs above average. His sprint speed is 89th percentile, which contributes to his above average metrics, but he also has above average reaction time.
The only defensive category that he is below average in is route. His speed and above average range makes up for what he lacks in route, and allows him to still make those tougher plays.
Toronto Blue Jays: Marcus Semien
The Blue Jays signed Marcus Semien to a one year, 18 million dollar deal this offseason. While he was primarily a shortstop for the A’s, he is going to be playing second base for the Blue Jays. He had an incredible year at the plate in 2019, but didn’t perform as well in 2020. In 2019, he lead the team in AVG, walks, and hits. He had 187 hits that season (top 10% of the league) and hit 33 home runs. The 33 home runs was an outlier for Semien, but one interesting thing about his 2020 performance that may have contributed to his decreased production was that he hit significantly fewer ground balls.
Semien’s ground ball rate decreased by 8% in 2020. This is due in part to his average launch angle increasing by 4 degrees. Looking further into this, his launch angle changed the most against breaking pitches, increasing by 9 degrees. The sample size against a specific type of pitch is very limited due to the shortened season, so it is hard to tell if the increased launch angle is actually indictive of a change in Semien’s approach.
Regardless of whether Semien is actively trying to increase his launch angle, a good sign from 2020 was his playoff performance. He started the regular season off in a slump, which really brought down his numbers, and then was injured in August. When the playoffs began, his rib cage injury was still lingering, but he still managed to put up a .407 AVG, .484 OBP and .667 SLG in 7 games.
Who are your players to watch in 2021?