The Cardinals are 9 games back in the NL Central and 10.5 games back of the Wildcard. Their performance has been one of the most shocking this season, as they were projected by many (including myself) to win the division.

 As we approach the trade deadline, the Cardinals are becoming more likely sellers. While I don’t think they are going to do a full fire sale and rebuild, there are seven players that the Front Office might want to explore selling given their contract situations.

If you prefer video breakdowns, check out this video:

Trade Targets on Free Agent Contracts

Paul DeJong, SS

At the end of this season, Paul DeJong has a $12.5M club option for 2024 and a second club option worth $15M for 2025. The Cardinals will need to decide whether they want to exercise DeJong’s option for 2024 and it would be in their best interest to make that decision prior to the trade deadline. With the options being as pricey are they are, and the Cardinals having other players (Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman) who can take over the middle infield spots for now, it might make sense to shop DeJong prior to his likely free agency.

DeJong’s biggest strength is his above average defense at shortstop, but he’s also done well offensively this season with a .757 OPS. Whether this is sustainable is up for debate. This is the best DeJong has done offensively since 2019. He still has below average bat to ball skills with a 30% strikeout rate and he is showing a slightly more aggressive approach this season, which has led to his walk rate dipping below average for the first time since 2018.  

Adam Wainwright, SP

Adam Wainwright will become a free agent at the end of this season and will likely retire. With the market for pitchers being as hot as it is, it’s possible the Cardinals will trade Wainwright this deadline. This is another tough decision for the front office, as Wainwright has spent his entire 18 season career with the Cardinals. If an offer is presented for Wainwright, this puts the team in an interesting position due to public relations. The team is already significantly underperforming expectations, and then on top of that they would likely receive backlash for trading a franchise player at the very end of his career. Wainwright also has a no trade clause in his contract, so he would need to approve any potential trade the Cardinals propose.

In terms of how Wainwright is doing, he spent some time on the IL at the beginning of the season with a groin injury but has a 5.57 ERA through 8 starts. His biggest struggle has been getting strikeouts – his 12% strikeout rate puts him in the bottom 2% of the league.

Drew VerHagen, RP

The end of VerHagen’s two year $5.5M contract is coming to an end this off-season. He is likely to slot in as a middle to back-end reliever in most playoff bullpens. VerHagen does not have options, meaning if a team were to trade for him, they would have to keep him on their 26-man roster or risk losing him on waivers if they wish to send him down to Triple A.

While VerHagen’s performance does not look great on the surface (4.46 ERA through 34 IP), his 2.99 xERA and 22% strikeout rate are good signs.

His slider is his best pitch and gets plus sweep and above average depth. It gets 6% more chase than average and 10% more miss than average when thrown in-zone. VerHagen also added a cutter this offseason and it has above average cut. While the two pitches can look similar, there is a 7-mph velocity difference on average between the two. Like the slider, the cutter gets 10% more miss than average when thrown in-zone.

Trade Targets Under Team Control Who Will be Free Agents this Off-Season

The players in this section would be rentals, as they will become free agents this off-season.

Jordan Montgomery, SP

Jordan Montgomery was traded last deadline from the New York Yankees in exchange for Harrison Bader. His performance so far this season has been in line with his career. He has a 3.69 ERA with an average strikeout rate of 22% and a better than average walk rate of 6%.

Since joining the Cardinals he’s started throwing his sinker 7% more often and stopped throwing his cutter. This seems to be working well for Montgomery, as his cutter was often hit hard. While none of his pitches are elite, his above average control has historically contributed to his success. He can likely slot into a playoff rotation as a back of the rotation starter.  

Jack Flaherty, SP

Jack Flaherty is slated as the Cardinals SP-1 per FanGraphs, but would likely slot in at the back of the rotation on a contending team. Through 15 starts, Flaherty has a 4.95 ERA, average 22% strikeout rate, and worse than average 12% walk rare.

Flaherty started throwing his cutter more often this season, a pitch he only threw a few times in 2022. He is using it primarily against left-handed batters. While the contact against the cutter has not been great (.436 xSLG), the pitch gets 5% more miss in-zone than average against left-handed hitters.

Jordan Hicks, RP

Hicks has been a high velocity ground ball pitcher for the majority of his career, but this season he’s increased his strikeout rate to 34%, which puts him in the top 5% of the league. His biggest weakness is his control, which has historically been below average. His 15% walk rate this season puts Hicks in the bottom 4% of the league.

The increase in strikeouts is due to Hicks getting 9% more whiffs than last season. In addition to his sinker/slider combination, he started throwing a 101-mph fourseam this season that has a whiff rate of 40%.  

Trade Targets Who Have 1.5 Years Remaining Under Team Control

When teams trade players who have more time remaining than a rental they typically get larger returns.

Tyler O’Neill, OF

Tyler O’Neill was transferred to the 60-day IL on June 16^th and has been dealing with back pain since the beginning of May. His return is TBD, so it is unclear whether it makes sense for an opposing team to acquire O’Neill. Per MLB.com, O’Neill was expected to resume baseball activities on June 15^th.

Before his injury, O’Neill was off to a slow start and had a .620 OPS through 99 PA. His biggest strength historically has been his contact quality, as he has hard hit rates that are consistently better than average. His biggest weakness is his poor bat to ball skills, as he has a career strikeout rate of 31% and career whiff rate that is 10% worse than MLB average.

We’ll have to revisit O’Neill as we get closer to the deadline to see if he’ll be able to contribute effectively to a team this season.

What do you think the Cardinals will do this deadline?